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re: UK report shows almost 2/3 of Delta deaths were vaccinated
Posted on 8/25/21 at 9:42 pm to Landmass
Posted on 8/25/21 at 9:42 pm to Landmass
From these statistics, without taking anything else into consideration:
Fully vaccinated death rate <50 (13/25,536 = 0.0005, or 0.05%)
Uncavinated death rate <50 (48/147,612 = 0.0003 or 0.03%)
Fully vaccinated death rate >50 (389/21,472 = 0.0181 or 1.81%)
Unvaccinated death rate >50 (205/3,440 = 0.0596 or 5.96%)
Therein lies the problem with "black and white" numbers out of context.
According to this, you're 1.6x as likely to die from COVID after getting vaccinated if you're under 50, but 3.3x as likely to die from it if you're over 50 and unvaccinated.
This, of course, has no calculated error or certainty or risk for random chance allowing these numbers to appear different when they are the same.
It also does not account for any particular risk factors- IE, you don't know if the under 50s who were vaccinated are diabetic, obese, one-armed, transgendered, indigent, IQ <60, Auburn fans, etc.
The statement showing that 2/3 the deaths were vaccinated is extremely true. The rates at which the over 50 unvaccinated crowd died is sort of glossed over in that statement, though.
The shown stat of "The vaccinated under 50 die at a rate 1.6x the unvaccinated" does not tell the story of how the vaccinated diabetic vs unvaccinated diabetic does. The comparison of a vaccinated guy with a BMI of 60 to the unvaccinated 18-year old professional soccer player is also not particularly useful when trying to understand the role of vaccination, other than to maybe say that there does not appear to be a huge role in vaccinating the <50, healthy crowd.
ETA: death rate of 6% in the >50 crowd also makes me very skeptical of the risk of bias in the sampling, because that is an awfully high mortality rate for that general crowd, unless most of them were fairly unhealthy and quite older than 50.
Fully vaccinated death rate <50 (13/25,536 = 0.0005, or 0.05%)
Uncavinated death rate <50 (48/147,612 = 0.0003 or 0.03%)
Fully vaccinated death rate >50 (389/21,472 = 0.0181 or 1.81%)
Unvaccinated death rate >50 (205/3,440 = 0.0596 or 5.96%)
Therein lies the problem with "black and white" numbers out of context.
According to this, you're 1.6x as likely to die from COVID after getting vaccinated if you're under 50, but 3.3x as likely to die from it if you're over 50 and unvaccinated.
This, of course, has no calculated error or certainty or risk for random chance allowing these numbers to appear different when they are the same.
It also does not account for any particular risk factors- IE, you don't know if the under 50s who were vaccinated are diabetic, obese, one-armed, transgendered, indigent, IQ <60, Auburn fans, etc.
The statement showing that 2/3 the deaths were vaccinated is extremely true. The rates at which the over 50 unvaccinated crowd died is sort of glossed over in that statement, though.
The shown stat of "The vaccinated under 50 die at a rate 1.6x the unvaccinated" does not tell the story of how the vaccinated diabetic vs unvaccinated diabetic does. The comparison of a vaccinated guy with a BMI of 60 to the unvaccinated 18-year old professional soccer player is also not particularly useful when trying to understand the role of vaccination, other than to maybe say that there does not appear to be a huge role in vaccinating the <50, healthy crowd.
ETA: death rate of 6% in the >50 crowd also makes me very skeptical of the risk of bias in the sampling, because that is an awfully high mortality rate for that general crowd, unless most of them were fairly unhealthy and quite older than 50.
This post was edited on 8/25/21 at 9:44 pm
Posted on 8/25/21 at 9:49 pm to Hopeful Doc
quote:
Therein lies the problem with "black and white" numbers out of context.
According to this, you're 1.6x as likely to die from COVID after getting vaccinated if you're under 50, but 3.3x as likely to die from it if you're over 50 and unvaccinated.
This, of course, has no calculated error or certainty or risk for random chance allowing these numbers to appear different when they are the same.
No it does not.
It shows every case they have had that enter their NHS Emergency system and were diagnosed with Covid.
Stop injecting numbers that don't exist.
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