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Started By
Message
re: Louisiana R(t) down to 0.91
Posted on 8/16/21 at 9:47 am to mb810
Posted on 8/16/21 at 9:47 am to mb810
quote:
How will R(t) be affected by the people getting tested solely to go about their lives? If there is a flood of testing coming from people that know they aren’t sick but need the (arbitrary) 72-hour test, will that dilute the case %s?
I think Rt is based purely on positive case numbers and trending that but not sure
0
Posted on 8/16/21 at 9:54 am to mb810
quote:
If there is a flood of testing coming from people that know they aren’t sick but need the (arbitrary) 72-hour test, will that dilute the case %s?
that would dilute % positivity
not sure if R(t) is based on that or not
not even sure if % positivity is even a trend that they follow anymore
last year % positivity and cases per 100k were the 2 main trends that they followed and made decisions upon
Posted on 8/16/21 at 9:56 am to Salmon
quote:
that would dilute % positivity
Right, if they were still using % positivity as a benchmark, I would think they’d have to recognize that would potentially need to be accounted for when determining mandates. But that would probably be giving them too much credit.
Posted on 8/16/21 at 10:29 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
Stay away from vaccinated people and you’ll be okay. Those frickers now think they’re invincible and some get a little too close for comfort as if they can’t spread it.
Posted on 8/16/21 at 10:36 am to CitizenK
Citizen where can you find the % cumulative infection rate for a parish? LDH site??
Posted on 8/16/21 at 10:36 am to mb810
The percent positivity will probably go down if more people without symptoms start to get tested just to get a negative test. But I don’t think a lot of people are doing this because I haven’t seen anywhere enforce it.
Which could make the Rt overestimate how quickly this wave will end. But I think it will still be a good predictor of when cases will drop.
Which could make the Rt overestimate how quickly this wave will end. But I think it will still be a good predictor of when cases will drop.
This post was edited on 8/16/21 at 10:38 am
Posted on 8/16/21 at 10:38 am to WaWaWeeWa
You are assuming the tests are accurate
Posted on 8/16/21 at 10:41 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
The Rt in BR, Jefferson, and Orleans is the lowest it’s ever been in the entire pandemic.
Natural immunity + vaccination is putting us close to herd immunity thresholds. Herd immunity isn’t a good term because I think it’s still going to stay around and come in waves, but huge spikes in hospitalizations are hopefully done unless we get a crazy new variant.
Natural immunity + vaccination is putting us close to herd immunity thresholds. Herd immunity isn’t a good term because I think it’s still going to stay around and come in waves, but huge spikes in hospitalizations are hopefully done unless we get a crazy new variant.
This post was edited on 8/16/21 at 10:42 am
Posted on 8/16/21 at 10:43 am to Tiger Ryno
quote:
You are assuming the tests are accurate
Are you referring to false positives? Even with false positives the percent positive will drop from where we are at.
Regardless of testing, if true infections drop then hospitalizations will have to drop. So it can’t be faked.
Posted on 8/16/21 at 10:52 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Natural immunity + vaccination is putting us close to herd immunity thresholds. Herd immunity isn’t a good term because I think it’s still going to stay around and come in waves, but huge spikes in hospitalizations are hopefully done unless we get a crazy new variant.
If you scroll down on the individual parish page, you can see their estimates for the percent of the population that has been infected. That may be a fairly good indicator for the amount of natural immunity that an area has. For example, East Baton Rouge Parish has an estimate of 61% of the population that has ever been infected. That does seem a little high and is only an estimate but it does seem to imply that there is a frick ton of natural immunity in the parish.
Posted on 8/16/21 at 10:56 am to tiger91
Link from OP. Then you click on the applicable State details, and right under the State level is a drop down where you can choose Parish/County
Posted on 8/16/21 at 11:03 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
if more people without symptoms start to get tested just to get a negative test.
I'm more concerned with being an asymptomatic carrier/false positive than I am with getting a negative test.
Posted on 8/16/21 at 11:11 am to Weekend Warrior79
Oh thank so much. Got that bookmarked and didn't even think to look there. Appreciate it.
Posted on 8/16/21 at 11:13 am to Weekend Warrior79
My parish rate is 67% infected (assuming cases weren't counted twice due to retesting??) and Rt is .71.
Posted on 8/16/21 at 11:15 am to tiger91
Just curious ... why's this anchored?
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