- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:09 am to Bobby OG Johnson
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:09 am to Bobby OG Johnson
Zach Fradella is such a doomcaster. On Stormcast he's hyping the GFS track right over nola at 960mb.
0
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:11 am to Bobby OG Johnson
HWRF a little faster, very slightly west (but still right in the expected area), and slightly weaker. Still showing a 95-100 kt hurricane. Pressure very much in line with GFS and location pretty close too. Euro is the last of em to run in about an hour.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:11 am to Duke
Both HMON and HWRF swung west as you’d expect with its background parameterization model, the GFS, doing the same.
The overall change with these models is speed to the coast. Faster storm moves north quicker before the low pressure sweeps it east.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:14 am to lsugolfredman
The HMON
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:17 am to lsuman25
Everything is coming in at least Cat 1 and puts the NOLA metro in the business end. I'm sure the Euro will too, since it's hard to imagine it coming east. The forward speed is notable too. Curious to see if that trend continues.
ETA: Gotta say, this is a really chill thread for everything showing a hurricane impacting New Orleans in two days. Hurricane fatigue is strong. Definitely not the longest thread in TD history.
ETA: Gotta say, this is a really chill thread for everything showing a hurricane impacting New Orleans in two days. Hurricane fatigue is strong. Definitely not the longest thread in TD history.
This post was edited on 10/27/20 at 12:20 am
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:24 am to Duke
quote:
Gotta say, this is a really chill thread for everything showing a hurricane impacting New Orleans in two days. Hurricane fatigue is strong. Definitely not the longest thread in TD history.
2020 has people fatigued. Also, I think there are some “boy that cried wolf” effects going on after the media has hyped every storm so people, at this point, just don’t care.
This post was edited on 10/27/20 at 12:25 am
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:24 am to Duke
let me ask you a question. is the weather.com forecasts just not worth a damn or what?
that is what is says for nola wed night
quote:
Tropical storm conditions likely. Windy with a heavy, steady rain in the evening. Rain showers continuing late. Low 63F. Winds NE at 35 to 50 mph, becoming WSW and decreasing to 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80%. 1 to 2 inches of rain expected.
that is what is says for nola wed night
This post was edited on 10/27/20 at 12:27 am
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:27 am to Mr Perfect
Typical weather website forecast pages are irrelevant when tropical systems are approaching. Ignore them.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:30 am to Jwho77
Agreed, 10 o’clock report made it seem like this will be nothing to really worry about
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:31 am to Mr Perfect
quote:
is the weather.com just not worth a damn or what?
You're getting model output for the forecast, it's not like they make the forecast themselves for every location. Day to day, the NWS is going to be better because they do actually make a forecast for the area. For this? Meh, it's probably not too bad but the whole thing is dependent on where the storm actually hits.
NWS won't have wind projections for this though.
That forecast isn't terribly unreasonable though. It just depends on where the storm actually goes in. Just on the east side of it and the wind values could be higher, even pushing toward 70 mph. Ends up going just east and yeah, 35-50 seems pretty reasonable.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:33 am to Duke
okay. that's makes sense. thx for info. I'll pray for eastern shift
This post was edited on 10/27/20 at 12:34 am
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:40 am to Duke
quote:
NWS won't have wind projections for this though.
On the NWS local forecast under hourly weather they have wind projections. For instance Covington shows 30-35 with gusts to 45 Wednesday night, with the entire duration only 2 1/2-3 hours.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:44 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
On the NWS local forecast under hourly weather they have wind projections. For instance Covington shows 30-35 with gusts to 45 Wednesday night, with the entire duration only 2 1/2-3 hours.
Forgot about that. Yeah, looking for my location Uptown the forecast is for winds hitting 50 and gusts into the 60s. Based on the NHC path certainly. It will be a very short duration event as the storm will be rocketing off NE by Wednesday night.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 1:08 am to Duke
Euro is slower with Zeta than the rest, which has it going more E at landfall. So a similar landfall point to the rest of them at 00z, but this scenario misses NOLA to the east. The storm is also weaker than 18z run but still a 976 mb hurricane. All pretty much in line with the rest of them, just timing differences lets the Euro's version of events get a little farther east because it's about 6 hours later.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 1:17 am to Duke
Good evening, Duke 
Posted on 10/27/20 at 1:18 am to Duke
Weird because Euro has been the westerly model for most storms.
I can’t believe we are doing this again. It seems surreal.
I can’t believe we are doing this again. It seems surreal.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 1:35 am to ForeverLSU02
quote:
Good evening, Duke
quote:
Weird because Euro has been the westerly model for most storms.
Funny thing is the reason it's been farthest west is why it's slower and moving more east at landfall imo.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 1:39 am to Duke
Crazy it has it over grand isle Thursday at midnight and over Washington DC 24 hours later. Thing is moving.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 3:18 am to BregmansWheelbarrow
Very tight agreement across the board here as has been for the past day at least.
Additionally, all of the ensemble members are coming in with a hurricane in the 970s pressure wise suggesting a Cat 1 or low end Cat 2 at landfall. Modeling continues to present a tight circulation with a small windfield vs what we saw with Delta and a larger windfield.
So a few miles east or west will make a big difference in impacts with the east side being shown to produce 100 mph+ gusts from both the GFS and Euro and sustained winds in the 80s just to the east of the eye.
The storm will be moving extremely fast, so high winds will quickly arrive and then leave. Not your typical storm where the wind is around for a while, which hopefully will limit power outages to some extent. Also, while surge is always a concern, the smaller size of the storm and rapid movement will keep those numbers on the lower end of expectations for a landfalling hurricane in the region.
We're to the point where the individual model runs aren't going to be shifting much in terms of location of landfall, and the exact details models aren't going to be able to resolve yet anyway since a wobble here or there will make the difference. What we'll be watching this morning and tomorrow is the intensity trends in modeling and nowcasting this fricker with recon and satellite imagery.
I'll edit in the NHC 4 am update and discussion when it's out.
Page 51 of 228
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News