Storms from last night (sidebar: surprisingly stout storms and even the short range models didn't show the extent of them five hours before they were in BR) are moving out to the east.

Now look at all the stuff blowing in over Baja California, that energy is all eventually blowing our way. Just little disturbance after little disturbance riding in on that, tucking under a cold high pressure that will be dropping into the upper midwest over the next couple of days.

Now for tonight:

3km NAM has scattered storms all around New Orleans tonight. Moving NE, but does seem to be moving out for parade time and kind of just miss NOLA to the west. No margin for error there, says bring a rain jacket but I don't expect rainout from this.

The HRRR is our other short range model of choice. It keeps the rain farther north, just a light rain at 6 tonight for NOLA and a pretty good parade night after. Same storm movement, NE.

Check your radars at 4 pm though. If you see significantly more rain than this to the SW:

Consider that it's probably going to be rainy and a little stormy tonight.

Finally, what LIX has for you.

quote:
Absolute mess of a weather pattern. Very wet conditions, but fortunately the rainfall is spread out over time and space with a large MCS feature. Conditions expected to remain wet especially for south shore areas today. The strongest instability is slowly moving east and offshore this morning. This is also where the most vigourous supercells are located at the moment. Another MCS feature is expected to develop again near the Toledo Bend Reservoir area of western Lousiana and move east through the night hours affecting our area once again tonight. Most of tonights rain
looks to stay farther north than where it is occurring this morning.

MCS is just a blog of semi organized convection, think blob of rain and storms. They seem to be leaning toward New Orleans missing the bulk of it.

TL;DR: It's a coinflip on rain in NOLA tonight, I'm leaning toward the bulk of rain missing the city and it being a little soggy but a decent parade night. This shite isn't what I'd call "high confidence" and check the radar through the afternoon. A lot of rain and lightning SW of NOLA by mid afternoon is not a good sign.

I'll update when I feel like it this afternoon.

This post was edited on 2/27/19 at 9:57 am