re: Mardi Gras Weather Thread

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After tonight and early Wed, severity numbers are low and only weak areas of lift will exist. But rainfall and wet conditions will continue. The rain should be in waves as weak disturbances move over the area for the next several days. A cold front may move through Sat night or Sunday. This front could be in the form of a dual wave with the first moving to the coast and stalling Friday evening. This feature is quite subtle though. The second, more significant front then moves in for Saturday night or Sunday. The subtrop jet remains active and continues flowing on the back side of this front keeping moisture moving in over the isentropic surfaces which keeps light rain over the area into the new week. This could change as we get closer and it would be nice to see model trends bring a cold front through that cleans the area.

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This morning's forecast discussion from LIX. The takeaway is all parades should be fine to run as scheduled but not great weather for parade goers. Bring some mud boots and a light rain jacket every day.

The meat of it is the subtropical jet off the Pacific will be bringing in moisture over the shallow surface cold and give enough lift to make rain.

The source though isn't a big swell of moisture out of the gulf, which means less heavy rain potential than what you'd typically see during rain events for Mardi Gras. Plus it won't be surface based, so not a lightning concern.

So cool and light rain for the weekend through Mardi Gras day.

I'll start rolling out short term high res model runs tonight to show what tomorrow night could look like and do the same each evening.