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re: Morganza Spillway may or may not open for a 3rd time -- lack of clear info from ACoE

Posted on 6/6/19 at 1:48 pm to
Posted by FutureMikeVIII
Houston
Member since Sep 2011
1082 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 1:48 pm to
quote:

quote:
First off, it's Wilson Point and it's ~30 miles downstream of the Greenville gage. According to the posters above (who I choose to believe), BR is ~3x further upstream of the BC spillway.


quote:

You chose to believe wrong baw.



Are you saying it's not Wilson point or it's not 30 miles b/w the breach and the gage? Either way, you're wrong. See the Nav Charts that you provided. Willow point is down by Eagle Lake.


quote:

It says that the river fell 6 inches in the 9 hours between 15:00 on 5/13/2011 when they first noticed the break until 00:00 on 5/14/2011. The point did not fill enough for the river to start rising until 03:00 on 5/14/2011. That means that the river at Greenville gage was dropping by 0.67 inches per hour. 0.67 inches/hour * 12 hours = 8 inches which is close enough to about a foot in 12 hours.


The river wouldn't continue dropping at the same rate, since, no doubt the flow rate would decrease as Wilson Point begins to fill up. From the 2011 post flood report, which can be found in its entirety by HERE.

quote:

Levee patrols were conducted along the Mississippi River Levee to identify the cause of the drop, and after verifying that the main line levee was intact suspicion fell on the overtopping levee near Wilson Point. On the morning of 14 May levee patrols verified that the water level on the land side of the abandoned levee was equal to the level on the river side, indicating that a crevasse had occurred in the levee and quickly inundated the land between the abandoned levee and the main line levee. The Greenville gage began falling at 1500 on 13 May and resumed climbing at 0300 on 14 May after a drop of 0.4 feet.


Apparently it fell by less than half a foot. Also, for the record, 8 inches is closer to 0.5 ft than 1 ft.

quote:

The Wilson Point bowl is stated to be 12,000 acres. Google Earth tells me the Wilson point front line levee is between 20 and 25 ft above the natural ground elevation of the farmland it protects...and it had 1 ft of water above it.
quote:

Wrong. The old levee had sandbags piled up a foot high when the levee gave way. I saw it about two hours afterwards because I was having to help my girlfriend's (at the time) father move his equipment out because he farmed in the point and he was desperately trying to get his cotton planted before the levee broke so he could claim insurance on those acres. The water got much deeper than a foot as this picture from inside the point shows.



It's clear your reading comprehension isnt that great, but you are agreeing with me. There was 1 ft of water overtopping the levee, I was saying that would've filled the bowl with b/w 20 and 26 ft of water, which can then be used to calculate volume.

quote:

opening up the BCS to its design flow should halt the rise and start dropping the river by a few inches each day at Baton Rouge.


There is no evidence to support that claim. BC is designed to protect New Orleans. It may provide very minor relief to a very localized area upstream, but not on the order of even 1 ft all the way up to Baton Rouge.

Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 2:03 pm to
quote:

I've got a strong suspicion that is a false rumor, but bad to hear nonetheless.

This shite right here is why you give information and control the narrative. It's like this is straight out of "how to frick up a PR situation" 101. In the absence of any explanation why, people are going to fill in the blanks themselves. They need to be explaining why they're doing, not just what they're doing.

People are freaked the frick out about this. It's as simple as telling them that some swamp gas refracted off of Venus and you control the narrative instead of letting people's mouths and minds run wild.

You'd think the Army would know better.
This post was edited on 6/6/19 at 2:05 pm
Posted by Thib-a-doe Tiger
Member since Nov 2012
35507 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 2:06 pm to
quote:

Rumors flying after doing some testing they aren't confident the structure can withstand the force of the water going through



Not gonna matter if it overtops and gets washed out
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41777 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 2:06 pm to


I could be wrong but after reading this it appears they may not be planning on opening at all now unless conditions warrant it.
Posted by Thib-a-doe Tiger
Member since Nov 2012
35507 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 2:08 pm to
I watched the interview with the Poche dude from the Corps. Sounded like they aren’t expecting the water levels to warrant it
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41777 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 2:09 pm to
Maybe those levee failures in Arkansas and Missouri helped?
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
141395 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 2:10 pm to
quote:

I watched the interview with the Poche dude from the Corps. Sounded like they aren’t expecting the water levels to warrant it

yeah... it seemed like he was saying the flow isn't fast enough
Posted by Thib-a-doe Tiger
Member since Nov 2012
35507 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 2:10 pm to
quote:

Maybe those levee failures in Arkansas and Missouri helped?



Probably temporarily, that water has to make its way back in at some point
Posted by Ponchy Tiger
Ponchatoula
Member since Aug 2004
45249 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 2:10 pm to
quote:

Political pressure from interests in the spillway area that would flood.

. That ain’t happening. EWE tried to stop it in 1973 and the Corp of Engineers laughed at him.
Posted by FelicianaTigerfan
Comanche County
Member since Aug 2009
26059 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 2:12 pm to
quote:

may not be planning on opening at all now unless conditions warrant it.



Wouldnt make much sense to open it if its unwarranted
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35654 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 2:15 pm to
They were worried about it overtopping the structure, and not so worried about too much flow through BR. If they don't think it'll actually overtop the structure, no reason to open it and send more water down the Atchafalaya.
Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
37185 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 2:17 pm to
quote:

That ain’t happening. EWE tried to stop it in 1973 and the Corp of Engineers laughed at him.


That was 46 years ago. The ACoE is a lot more political these days.
Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
37185 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 2:18 pm to
That press release tells it all. They are willing to take chances with the MS river so they don't have to put water into the basin.

WTF are they so worried about putting some water in the basin?
Posted by lsuKountRy
Member since Oct 2018
18 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 2:18 pm to
If you haven't yet, you need to watch yesterday's video on FB from the NOLA Corps Col. Michael Clancy (District Commander) addressing some common questions....relationship between flow and stage height, upstream effect (none) of spillway opening and his take on dredging. The last 6 months of dredging at the mouth of the MS River resulted in that dredged area filling up in 11 minutes.

LINK to FB video
This post was edited on 6/6/19 at 2:20 pm
Posted by MrLSU
Yellowstone, Val d'isere
Member since Jan 2004
26062 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 2:19 pm to
USACOE clearly believes it has several feet to play with right now.

Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
98415 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 2:21 pm to
quote:

WTF are they so worried about putting some water in the basin?





Maybe there's something wrong with the control structure. If it fails there's your new river course.
Posted by BallsEleven
Member since Mar 2019
6163 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 2:23 pm to
The same area filled up in 11 mins after that stopped dredging?
Posted by FelicianaTigerfan
Comanche County
Member since Aug 2009
26059 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 2:27 pm to
quote:

WTF are they so worried about putting some water in the basin?



Idk, maybe flooding a bunch of areas they dont have to?
Posted by tigeraddict
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
11837 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 2:38 pm to
quote:

WTF are they so worried about putting some water in the basin?


i think there are two reasons

1) because the SOP call for the gates to open at a flow of 1.5, and we are not there nor forecast to get there

2) we just saw a ton of rain dumped in the AR basin

They have given warnign that they could open, so everyone should be prepared for it to open. however, it sounds like they will make a decision based on current conditions and see what future rain events do. only opening as a last resort.

it sounds like they have a 2 week window ( with crest lasting virtually 2 weeks) to see what future rain in upper and mid mississippi rives does to the forecast water level.

and if morganza look like it will over top, they will open to protect it. but only as a last resort. Remember the BR levee is designed to handle 1.5 flow it will not see that flow. so unless they see a risk of failure they will not open.
Posted by OLDBEACHCOMBER
Member since Jan 2004
7197 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 2:40 pm to
quote:

Not gonna matter if it overtops and gets washed out


Or a lose barge slams against the levee in the wrong place.
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