re: Tornado! Threat Clearing Louisiana

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first time I've seen Ventrice's severe index pop up outside of work

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Here is what it ginned up for Sunday...



It seems to do ok and I would be interested in seeing him do a paper on it. There is an experimental tornado forecast based off of GEFS reforecast and analogs that often shows similar results to the WSI one. However, the WSI is svr wx and the GEFS reforecast is for tornadoes. Here is what it shows for the upcoming period:



Basically, anything that can time up RWP in MAM is going to show some skill in predicting svr wx. Then going a step out beyond those, work focused on the MJO and GWO/AAM also show some promise but the models still struggle with both of those in the longer range.