re: Storm Aftermath - Hurricane Matthew will be Retired

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The models are quite ominous but they have been so horrible all year. The big concern for me is that they are in pretty good agreement through the next 10 days, especially compared to earlier systems. Lots (if not all) models are on board for development and all the big ones have it in the same general vicinity. That is quite telling to me that the upper air pattern is not going to be so complicated, at least with the path. Intensity is always a huge gamble, this will probably not get nearly so strong as the GFS is showing. That goes against everything we have seen this year but it is not impossible.

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By all metrics the models continue to improve with 5 day 500mb anomaly correlation around 0.900 for the northern hemisphere this year. However, Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis has seemed like a train wreck this season and that causes all kinds of issues as the models go out in time from the point of genesis.