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FiveThirtyEight: Cardinals have been luckiest MLB team since 1998 Expansion
Posted on 9/15/16 at 1:29 pm
Posted on 9/15/16 at 1:29 pm
quote:
For each franchise, going back to 1998, I used the above formula to calculate the yearly probability that it would make the playoffs based on how many games it won. Then I summed up the probabilities to measure how many playoff appearances a given team should have collected over that span, compared to how many appearances it actually made.
The St. Louis Cardinals have been baseball’s luckiest team in terms of gaining extra postseason berths. And no season better exemplifies this than 2006, which saw the Cards win the World Series despite posting a mere 83 wins and +19 run differential. Given that resume, they would have been predicted to have only a 1-in-40 chance of making the playoffs. But even disregarding that 2006 team, every single one of the 11 St. Louis squads with more than a 50 percent postseason probability in my model went on to make the playoffs, including five times when the Cardinals’ chances were under 90 percent. And that’s on top of repeatedly harnessing improbable streaks of luck to achieve those records in the first place.
LINK
This post was edited on 9/15/16 at 1:33 pm
6
Posted on 9/15/16 at 1:33 pm to Bench McElroy
Cardinals, Cubs, and Astros were all in the same division and they are the top 3 luckiest teams.
Surely there has to be some connection there, right?
Surely there has to be some connection there, right?
Posted on 9/15/16 at 1:33 pm to Bench McElroy
frick the Cardinals and their fans.
Posted on 9/15/16 at 1:42 pm to Bench McElroy
Now let's compare the minor league systems for the Cards, Cubs, and Astros to the Mariners and see if it's really luck, or if the Mariners just don't know what the frick they're doing.
162 game season is a war of attrition. Being able to get good contributions from the AAA call ups each season to supplement the opening day 25 can mean a few extra wins here and there. Maybe that has more to do with making the playoffs than sheer luck.
I'm all about advanced metrics, but saying one of the more poorly run franchises over the last decade is simply unlucky is absurd.
162 game season is a war of attrition. Being able to get good contributions from the AAA call ups each season to supplement the opening day 25 can mean a few extra wins here and there. Maybe that has more to do with making the playoffs than sheer luck.
I'm all about advanced metrics, but saying one of the more poorly run franchises over the last decade is simply unlucky is absurd.
Posted on 9/15/16 at 4:38 pm to Bench McElroy
Also don't forget the "infield fly" game. 1st year of the single wild card game, beat the Braves who won a lot more games than them.
Posted on 9/16/16 at 8:25 am to Bench McElroy
It is called "Making your own luck"
Also known as, hacking into rivals emails and servers.
Also known as, hacking into rivals emails and servers.
Posted on 9/16/16 at 8:32 am to Bench McElroy
This is where I parked my car.
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