re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine

quote:

---

Florida got pretty lucky that it didn't have more time. With that eyewall in place we could have seen some rapid intensification in the next 6-12 hours over water.

---

Also, it came ashore in one of the more sparsely populated areas of the state.

The rain shield has really expanded on the northern side as the system interacts with the trough coming down. Storms that move up the East Coast are much more likely to have the precipitation max on the left side of the track while storms that landfall in the Gulf are more likely to have the max on the right side of the track. The models are showing this undergoing some extratropical transition but then, as the trough lifts out and a ridge builds over top, they are showing it transitioning back to more of a warm core tropical system. Tough forecast challenge for the MA & NE for this weekend.