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Posted on 8/24/16 at 4:51 am to LSU2001
I'm not sure it's got a closed surface circulation yet, but it definitely does look better overnight. Convection has been reasonably sustained overnight. It looks like it's starting to die down a bit though, which should give us a better look at the surface circulation, if there is one, by sunrise.
I've seen some posts about the vertical structure of the storm pop up overnight and I'd kind of caution against reading too much into that. It's really hard to ascertain based only on IR imagery, and that's all we've got right now. First recon of the day will take off in a couple hours and will give us a better picture in combination with visible sat imagery. There's going to be another windsat pass soon as well... the last couple have missed the storm, so hopefully this one will hit.
I've seen some posts about the vertical structure of the storm pop up overnight and I'd kind of caution against reading too much into that. It's really hard to ascertain based only on IR imagery, and that's all we've got right now. First recon of the day will take off in a couple hours and will give us a better picture in combination with visible sat imagery. There's going to be another windsat pass soon as well... the last couple have missed the storm, so hopefully this one will hit.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 4:56 am to baytiger
So on a scale of 1-10, What level of oh noze should we be at? I'm sitting on a solid 6 already.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 4:58 am to Jim Rockford
Keep it at a 5 or so. Be prepared but don't panic. You guys have been through this before.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 4:59 am to baytiger
quote:
You guys have been through this before.
Yeah that makes me feel a lot better
Posted on 8/24/16 at 5:04 am to baytiger
No kidding. we have at least a few days of models flip flopping, intensity changes and general hype before we have a good handle on what 99L is going to do. Until we are less than 100 hours from landfall the models do nothing but offer trends and general info. I am planning on starting general preps tomorrow. Gonna top off my stored fuel, stock up on water and begin to plan how and when I will secure my home and yard. I figure this weekend will be plenty early to begin to actually start getting things tied down and secure. My level of concern right now is about a 4-5 but will be watching developments closely.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 5:09 am to LSU2001
That's a good place to be right now
Posted on 8/24/16 at 5:12 am to baytiger
Y'all think we will have s hurricane or system to deal with?
Posted on 8/24/16 at 5:17 am to LSU2001
Same here. Thinking this is happening at this point though, and just hoping it doesn't.
This is a shitty feeling.
This is a shitty feeling.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 5:53 am to BRgetthenet
Upside: The GFS is still showing it's crazy outcome that slams a weak 99L straight into a ridge of high pressure.
This post was edited on 8/24/16 at 5:54 am
Posted on 8/24/16 at 5:55 am to GEAUXmedic
GEAUX please speak English or put it in terms like you were speaking to a 5th grader
Posted on 8/24/16 at 5:59 am to TommyDaTiger
What Geaux is saying is the GFS is a meth head 
This post was edited on 8/24/16 at 5:59 am
Posted on 8/24/16 at 5:59 am to TommyDaTiger
quote:
GEAUX please speak English or put it in terms like you were speaking to a 5th grader
The GFS model is showing a weak storm moving into a strong area of high pressure. Areas of high pressure usually steer storms, especially weak ones, and for a weak storm to move straight into high pressure, rather than go around it, it weird.
quote:
What Geaux is saying is the GFS is a meth head
Basically... the GFS is like the prom queen who was extremely full of herself, and once she graduated got addicted to drugs, had 3 babies, moved to the trailer park, and doesn't know who any of her baby daddies are.
This post was edited on 8/24/16 at 6:01 am
Posted on 8/24/16 at 6:02 am to TommyDaTiger
GFS is the Peej of computer models right now
Posted on 8/24/16 at 6:05 am to GEAUXmedic
So on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being we're doomed, what's the chances of this storm plowing right through that ridge and hitting us 
Posted on 8/24/16 at 6:12 am to TommyDaTiger
It won't plow through the ridge. The ridge is what's going to make it turn west until it feels a weakness in the ridge and turns north.
I say 6.5 that this thing causes major problems for LA right now.
I say 6.5 that this thing causes major problems for LA right now.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 6:14 am to TommyDaTiger
quote:
So on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being we're doomed, what's the chances of this storm plowing right through that ridge and hitting us
First, we would need an actual storm. Second, it would have to find a weakness in the ridge. So... 50/50. lol.
There's no telling where this thing will go. I will always bring up Katrina as an example of models having no clue how a storm will interact with a ridge.
This post was edited on 8/24/16 at 6:15 am
Posted on 8/24/16 at 6:15 am to TommyDaTiger
Cliffs?
Posted on 8/24/16 at 6:15 am to Janky
We all gone die
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