Should Danny Duffy be a legit Cy Young candidate?

Cole Hamels
Fulmer
Britton
Duffy

in that order imo

I think Kluber is the favorite as of now. But it is a weak enough field where Duffy is a legit candidate. He has been great of late.

I'm going to sound a little biased but I'm going with Britton as the AL Cy Young Award winner. There's no starting pitcher having a standout year in the American League while Britton hasn't allowed an earned run since April and is on pace to have the lowest ERA for a reliever in the history of the game.

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I think he's in the discussion at least with guys like Kluber/Tanaka/Quintana/Sale/Porcello and I guess Britton and others.

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Forgetting Hamels, who won't win it, but should be in the conversation.

AL ranks for Hamels:
Wins: T-6th (13)
ERA: 3rd (2.80)
BA: 16th (.238)
K/9: 10th (8.91)
ERA-: 2nd (62)
xFIP: 13th (3.90)
WAR: 15th (2.5)

AL race is an absolute toss up right now.

Without a dominant starter in the AL, I don't understand why Britton isn't getting more traction as a candidate. It would be one thing if we had a Kershaw-esque starter because, yeah, a great starter is more valuable than a great reliever. But Britton might be more valuable than a very good starter.

Britton currently has an ERA+ of 857. Sure, he's pitched a third as many innings a starter, he also has an adjusted ERA that NINE times better than average. He has an ERA of 0.53 and a FIP of 1.96. He has not allowed an earned run since APRIL. I mean, what does a reliever have to do to be considered for the Cy Young, particularly in a year without a great starter candidate?

To use the subject of the thread. Sure, Duffy has a WAR of 4.2, and Britton has a 3.0. Duffy has thrown more innings. But Britton has thrown more IMPORTANT innings. Using Win Probability Average (WPA), which looks at a player's impact on the chances of winning and losing in real game situations this year, Britton has a WPA of 5.0. Duffy is 3rd in the AL at 3.1. Put another way, Duffy has been worth a theoretical 1.2 more wins while Britton has been worth an actual 1.9 more wins.

Britton is having an absurdly great season for a reliever. Unless someone starts channelling their inner Pedro, why shouldn't Britton win the Cy Young?

Britton has been spectacular this season, but the first three outs of the game are just as important as the last three.

Those last three outs for Britton are irrelevant if the guys who start the game aren't doing their job to put Britton in an opportunity to close a game.


FWIW: I don't care if Britton wins it, he's just as deserving as anyone right now as Baloo said.

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Britton has a WPA of 5.0. Duffy is 3rd in the AL at 3.1. Put another way, Duffy has been worth a theoretical 1.2 more wins while Britton has been worth an actual 1.9 more wins.

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or Danny Duffy has pitched that well early in the game, removing the possibility of pitching in late game, high leverage situations, for instance. WPA doesnt tell you how well a player performed, just how important their performance was. So to say "theoretically" Britton is worth more wins, is wrong. Cause that is what WAR tells us. Not WPA

there is a definite difference between starting and relief pitchers that negates direct WPA comparisons

Britton has been dominant, but his high WPA is almost as much a function of how he has been used than how dominant he has been. Buck has done a great job deploying Britton in high leverage situations. It’s just hard for me to say a reliever is more valuable than the top starters. Not only do the starters throw triple the innings, but it is just so much easier to pitch as a reliever. Most of the top relievers in the AL (Davis, Miller, Britton) were all failed starters. I could see Kluber coming close to Britton’s stats if he was in that role (maybe not the whole four months without a run, that is pretty insane), but couldn’t see Britton doing what Kluber does as a starter.