re: Hurricane Season - Nicole only 2nd Cat 3 for Bermuda

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there is no Fiona at that point. they're just open waves and they conglomerate a bit west of Florida... but it looks more like 90L's the dominant one to me.


actually taking a closer look at the vort, you could argue that it's actually neither, as the vort from 90L dissipates east of the bahamas and the vort max from fiona goes into the carolinas while this develops from a separate vort max that splits off over the everglades at 132-138h.

Either way it's a pointless argument as it's still a gulf threat 5-6 days out, same as the ecmwf.

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The two Euro runs are certainly raising an eyebrow but this looks like a very complex setup. It appears that the remnant vorticity of Fiona and the associated PW surge interact with 99L to various degrees on the different models. It appears that the Euro is kind of having the remnants of Fiona run cover for 99L and protecting it from the dry air on the southern flank of the high. It shows a much more moist environment for 99L as it approaches Florida than does the GFS.