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re: Covered calls on AAPL?
Posted on 5/3/16 at 7:02 pm to Ole War Skule
Posted on 5/3/16 at 7:02 pm to Ole War Skule
Here's what I wrote in another thread yesterday on AAPL....I think bailing right now is just a bad idea and you shouldnt care what the next 12 months are, unless you're a chartist and trying to trade the name. Selling calls here at 52 week lows is silly IMO but profit is profit.
"Apple is fine, they have tons of cash, cash is king. Buybacks are stupid I dont know why everyone wants a buyback just to artificially boost share price, google isnt buying stock. Yes apple is cheap but its a tech company for god sake. They might make sense for a company with nothing to innovate like Procter Gamble but for companies that have major opportunities, buybacks are idiotic. Apple should use their cash to go in and dominate other industries whether it be finance, automobiles,virtual reality,robots, whatever.They have the cash. They have the organizational structure, Tim cook is a supply chain guy. They have the technical chops. But mostly their ecosystem gives them an incredibly powerful base to grow from.
Apple's strength is their cash, their cash flow, their modern corporate structure, their lack of pension overhang, unions and such. Buying back stock and giving out dividends weakens the company. We're entering a phase in society where literally facebook,apple,google will dominate our lives till the end of time, if anyone emerges they will be acquired. I would want to hoard all the cash in the world and prepare to just dominate every field if I was running apple. Of course old people retiring today want dividends. They're in a great position to be in. "
FWIW I stlil think apple is worth $5 trillion or more in 20-30 years yes still 10x or more from here as ridiculous as it sounds. This thing is nowhere near topping out, whatever they want to dominate they can and will. Their cash pile is unstoppable. When will they get into other things, who knows, but they will, just relax, its the best name youll ever own, your ancestors a few generations away will thank you for holding on.
"Apple is fine, they have tons of cash, cash is king. Buybacks are stupid I dont know why everyone wants a buyback just to artificially boost share price, google isnt buying stock. Yes apple is cheap but its a tech company for god sake. They might make sense for a company with nothing to innovate like Procter Gamble but for companies that have major opportunities, buybacks are idiotic. Apple should use their cash to go in and dominate other industries whether it be finance, automobiles,virtual reality,robots, whatever.They have the cash. They have the organizational structure, Tim cook is a supply chain guy. They have the technical chops. But mostly their ecosystem gives them an incredibly powerful base to grow from.
Apple's strength is their cash, their cash flow, their modern corporate structure, their lack of pension overhang, unions and such. Buying back stock and giving out dividends weakens the company. We're entering a phase in society where literally facebook,apple,google will dominate our lives till the end of time, if anyone emerges they will be acquired. I would want to hoard all the cash in the world and prepare to just dominate every field if I was running apple. Of course old people retiring today want dividends. They're in a great position to be in. "
FWIW I stlil think apple is worth $5 trillion or more in 20-30 years yes still 10x or more from here as ridiculous as it sounds. This thing is nowhere near topping out, whatever they want to dominate they can and will. Their cash pile is unstoppable. When will they get into other things, who knows, but they will, just relax, its the best name youll ever own, your ancestors a few generations away will thank you for holding on.
This post was edited on 5/3/16 at 7:07 pm
Posted on 5/3/16 at 7:20 pm to dabigfella
Damn son, so how much Apple do you own?
Posted on 5/3/16 at 7:33 pm to dabigfella
quote:
they have tons of cash, cash is king.
having all that cash with nothing to do with it is a horrible sign, dumbass
Posted on 5/3/16 at 7:36 pm to dabigfella
quote:
We're entering a phase in society where literally facebook,apple,google will dominate our lives till the end of time, if anyone emerges they will be acquired
Yeah, no. Maybe yours, but Apple doesn't belong on that list IMO.
Also, Apple hasn't acquired, nor given reason to believe, anything noteworthy. They also bailed on the TV. The Apple car integration has been insignificant so far. What makes you so certain Apple can and wants to do these things? Sorry, I just don't see it.
I saw an article that said Apple should acquire Telsa. Makes a great headline, but I don't think either party has a desire to do so. Where are you getting this from? Just because they have a pile of cash? Who cares? Cash is getting cheaper by the day. It's not that great of an asset IMO.
Posted on 5/3/16 at 7:59 pm to dabigfella
I could say a lot here, but I'll just respond to the last bit...
Over the decades, how many people said the same thing (minus market cap) about how many other companies, and where are these companies now? How about US Steel (X)? Kodak (EKDKQ for the old stock, which isn't traded anymore)? Cisco (CSCO)?
Tell that to the US Repatriation Tax rate.
AAPL isn't going to continue growing at the same rate as in the past due to the law of large numbers if nothing else. To reinforce this point, consider that for AAPL to become a $5 trillion company in 30 years (to be conservative based on the timespan you suggested in the first quote) requires an annual growth rate of around 7.25%, which is faster than annual US GDP growth for any year in more than a decade. If we instead assume it takes 20 years to acquire a $5 trillion market cap, then the stock annual growth rate would be 11%. They're big, and it's hard to keep growing when you're that large - just ask Warren Buffett.
Not trying to be mean or say that AAPL can't be a good investment. It's just that your post sounds like something you'd hear from a Cisco investor in the 90's.
quote:
FWIW I stlil think apple is worth $5 trillion or more in 20-30 years yes still 10x or more from here as ridiculous as it sounds. This thing is nowhere near topping out, whatever they want to dominate they can and will.
Over the decades, how many people said the same thing (minus market cap) about how many other companies, and where are these companies now? How about US Steel (X)? Kodak (EKDKQ for the old stock, which isn't traded anymore)? Cisco (CSCO)?
quote:
Their cash pile is unstoppable
Tell that to the US Repatriation Tax rate.
quote:See above, and think of all the big company/stock names over the years that you've heard the same exact thing but didn't pan out.
just relax, its the best name youll ever own, your ancestors a few generations away will thank you for holding on.
AAPL isn't going to continue growing at the same rate as in the past due to the law of large numbers if nothing else. To reinforce this point, consider that for AAPL to become a $5 trillion company in 30 years (to be conservative based on the timespan you suggested in the first quote) requires an annual growth rate of around 7.25%, which is faster than annual US GDP growth for any year in more than a decade. If we instead assume it takes 20 years to acquire a $5 trillion market cap, then the stock annual growth rate would be 11%. They're big, and it's hard to keep growing when you're that large - just ask Warren Buffett.
Not trying to be mean or say that AAPL can't be a good investment. It's just that your post sounds like something you'd hear from a Cisco investor in the 90's.
Posted on 5/4/16 at 7:57 am to dabigfella
quote:
Buybacks are stupid I dont know why everyone wants a buyback just to artificially boost share price, google isnt buying stock
Please explain what's "artificial" about buy backs and the way they raise share prices?
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