re: Is "smart money" piling into oil once the calendar flips to January?

The last oil bear lasted 19 to 20 years. If this one does the same, or even close to it, $100 oil is over 20 years away as we are currently 7 years into the oil bear.

Having said that, in the last oil bear your big oil companies bottomed in stock price about 2 years after the oil crash. If one considers the 2014 event as the crash, we are almost at the 2 year point. I don't see these stocks taking off, but long term bottoms in companies like XOM, CVX, COP, BP, She'll, and Total could be happening soon. I plan on waiting for what I think is a USD top before dipping my toe in, which could be a year plus, but I'm watching the large players. For smaller oil companies, I'd think bottoms would occur later in the cycle.