re: Up to an 80% chance of Rain Saturday night

I always rely on the NWS Forecast Discussion when I really want to know/understand the reasoning behind a forecast:

Here's today's snippet regarding Saturday:

quote:

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LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS IS WHERE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES AS THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS MOVES
THE FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON SUNDAY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT AND MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WOULD KEEP THE UNSETTLED AND WET
PATTERN AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE DRIER SOLUTION FOR NOW AWAITING
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT

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FWIW, the NWS currently puts Sat. night rain chances at 30%.