re: Season Record Prediction Using Mathematical Analysis of Point Spreads 2015

quote:

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See, this is the part I'm having a problem with. I look at it as you're favored to win 90/10 if you played the same opponent 100 times on the same day... but in reality, you only play them once. And can have only one of two results:

1-0
0-1

Then you move on to the next one... rather than the games building on each other. Again, using my earlier cause for confusion:

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I hear you.

Let's look at the extremes where your gut makes sense and work our way to the harder part.

What if LSU played 12 games against teams in which the odds were 99% that LSU would win. Your gut would say that LSU would probably win 12 games.

But what if the odds of winning were 51%. What if LSU played 12 games against teams in which the odds were 51% that LSU would win. I hope your gut would say that LSU would probably win 6 games. Sure, LSU is more likely to win each individual game, but there is almost an equal chance that LSU would lose the game.

Now let's take one step away from the easy stuff.

What if LSU played 6 games against teams in which the odds were 99% that LSU would win and then 6 games against teams in which the odds were 51% that LSU would win. Your gut would say that LSU would probably win all 6 of the first 6 games, but only 3 of the next 6 game. LSU wins 9 out of 12 games.

That equation can be expressed as

99% + 99% + 99% + 99% + 99% + 99% + 51% + 51% + 51% + 51% + 51% + 51% = 900% = 9

What if LSU played 12 games against teams in which the odds were 67% that LSU would win. Your gut would say that LSU would probably win 8 games.

What if LSU played 6 games against teams in which the odds were 99% that LSU would win and then 6 games against teams in which the odds were 67% that LSU would win. Your gut would say that LSU would probably win all 5 of the first 5 games, but only 4 of the next 5 game. LSU wins 9 out of 12 games.

That equation can be expressed as

99% + 99% + 99% + 99% + 99% + 99% + 67% + 67% + 67% + 67% + 67% + 67% = 996% = 10

So now let's get to your example:
FLA - 80%
SCAR - 70% (Remember, there's a 30% chance LSU loses. You can't ignore it.)
CUSE - 90%
ARKY - 65% (Remember, there's a 35% chance LSU loses. You can't ignore it.)

That equation can be expressed as

80% + 70% + 90% + 65% = 300.5% = 3

quote:

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You suggest that we'll go 3.05/4.00 = 3-1
My logic dictates that we'll go 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, and 4-0

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I hope my post helped.



Edited to correct math mistake based on 10 games.