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The Limits of Human Performance and GOAT Arguments
Posted on 7/21/15 at 1:34 pm
Posted on 7/21/15 at 1:34 pm
I thought this article in the Economist was pretty interesting.
We're about done getting faster and throwing balls harder, but we're getting better at tennis, among others.
LINK
It's not that long. Worth a read.
We're about done getting faster and throwing balls harder, but we're getting better at tennis, among others.
LINK
It's not that long. Worth a read.
quote:
Another approach is to look for natural experiments buried within interactive sports. Perhaps the best one can be found in baseball. Its pitchers are selected for their ability to throw the ball, but still have to try to hit it a few times per game. They generally make only a token effort to practise batting. As a result, their hitting statistics essentially reflect how a randomly chosen man on the street—albeit a highly athletic one—would perform against major-league opposition. The most convincing evidence for the accuracy of this measure is the second world war: when most of the sport’s stars went off to fight, these guinea pigs hit much better against the laggards left behind. If the quality of play has improved over time, then pitchers should bat far worse today than they did in the past. Sure enough, the numbers show a sharp downward trend: a team whose offence declined by the same amount as pitchers’ has from 1930 to the present would win about 12% fewer games. Based on those figures, Babe Ruth, baseball’s answer to Bradman, would be equal but not superior to today’s best hitters.
quote:
Fortunately for fans of Mr Djokovic, tennis seems to have improved faster than bat-and-ball games. In 2014 Jeff Sackmann, a statistical analyst, examined the performances of players since 1970 who were ranked in the top 50 for two consecutive years. He found that they scored an average of 2.2% fewer return points against other top-50 opponents in the second season than the first, because the players who entered the group in the second year were better than the ones they had replaced. Compounded over 44 years, that pace of improvement suggests that Mr Laver would struggle to win a single game, let alone a set or match, against Mr Federer or almost any other modern opponent. And unlike the plateaus seen in many forms of racing, the rate of progress has slowed only modestly to 1.5% in recent years. Even Mr Djokovic will probably pale in comparison to future talent.
4
Posted on 7/21/15 at 1:59 pm to SystemsGo
Good read I've always been interested in peak human performance and sports.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:03 pm to SystemsGo
Evolution will continue as will sports science and medicine.
Usain Bolt just shattered records that were incrementally broken before. Same with Phelps, etc.
Usain Bolt just shattered records that were incrementally broken before. Same with Phelps, etc.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:04 pm to Sterling Archer
It's a cool subject, but I think tennis and golf are too hard to measure historically with the technology and court/course changes. In everything else, maybe shoes and some uniforms have gotten better.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:05 pm to SystemsGo
quote:
Sackmann, a statistical analyst, examined the performances of players since 1970 who were ranked in the top 50 for two consecutive years. He found that they scored an average of 2.2% fewer return points against other top-50 opponents in the second season than the first, because the players who entered the group in the second year were better than the ones they had replaced. Compounded over 44 years, that pace of improvement suggests that Mr Laver would struggle to win a single game, let alone a set or match, against Mr Federer or almost any other modern opponent.
lolz.
wooden rackets versus today's composites.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:06 pm to Bunk Moreland
I find it amazing that Kevin Young's WR set in the Olympics (400 hurdles) and Team USA's WR in 4x400 relay set in the WC, Michael Johnson's WR set in the World's (400) haven't been approached yet.
This post was edited on 7/21/15 at 2:07 pm
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:10 pm to sms151t
quote:
Michael Johnson's WR set in the World's (400) haven't been approached yet.
If Usain focused on the 400 it'd be his.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:12 pm to TheCaterpillar
I do not think so, the 400 is completely different race. The 400 is what made Johnson so good at the 200.
I do not think Bolt could keep a 400 pace up that Johnson had or Wariner.
I do not think Bolt could keep a 400 pace up that Johnson had or Wariner.
This post was edited on 7/21/15 at 2:15 pm
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:15 pm to sms151t
quote:
I do not think so, the 400 is completely different race.
That's why I think if he trained for it solely, it'd be his.
What Usain did in the 100 and 200 is just fricking silly. Him pulling up 10m short and spreading his arms and still destroying the WR is unfair.
His strides and body are built for the 400. I have no doubt he'd own it.
This post was edited on 7/21/15 at 2:16 pm
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:17 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
His strides and body are built for the 400. I have no doubt he'd own it.
depends on how he runs turns.
some people have it, others dont.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:18 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:.
His strides and body are built for the 400
Yeah his body type does seem more suited for the 400m. It really is incredible what he's done
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:18 pm to TheCaterpillar
I think the 400 200 double is harder than what Bolt did. His (Bolt) starts are legendary and his explosion is freakish. I do not think Bolt is faster the longer he runs.
Wariner ran a 1:53 800 that is just insane.
Wiki list of Michael Johnson's records...that is impressive
Wariner ran a 1:53 800 that is just insane.
Wiki list of Michael Johnson's records...that is impressive
This post was edited on 7/21/15 at 2:24 pm
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:23 pm to SystemsGo
Once gene doping becomes common more and more records will fall and fall more frequently.
This and if there are any other way to enhance muscle hyperplasia quickly
This and if there are any other way to enhance muscle hyperplasia quickly
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:25 pm to sms151t
That's bc of the fine motor skills involved specifically in those events in my opinion.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:26 pm to sms151t
quote:
His (Bolt) starts are legendary and his explosion is freakish.
Didn't he start out like 6th in his WR races and his long strides pulled him ahead?
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:26 pm to TheCaterpillar
He'd have to change his training and focus more on glycolytic energy work.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:34 pm to TheCaterpillar
Bolt's best 400m time is 45.28 from 2007. Johnson's time is 43.18. I think he could've given it a good run, but I don't know if he takes it down
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:41 pm to OneMoreTime
LINK
He definitely isn't the clear best starter in these races.
Its his stride that wins it.
ETA:
LINK
I think people are misunderstanding me. I am saying if Usain trained for the 400 from Day 1, it'd be his. Obviously he is past his prime and it takes years of "race specific" training to beat WR's.
He definitely isn't the clear best starter in these races.
Its his stride that wins it.
ETA:
quote:
Such is Bolt's brilliance that it hasn't mattered too much, with a pattern emerging where he is typically left near the tail of the field in the early stages before storming past the pack to clinch victory. The most recent example came in Zurich on Thursday, where the six-time Olympic champion's takeoff was almost comically pedestrian – he challenged for dead last through 20 meters in the nine-runner field – although he still managed to cruise to victory in a time of 9.90 seconds.
LINK
I think people are misunderstanding me. I am saying if Usain trained for the 400 from Day 1, it'd be his. Obviously he is past his prime and it takes years of "race specific" training to beat WR's.
This post was edited on 7/21/15 at 2:51 pm
Posted on 7/21/15 at 4:41 pm to Bunk Moreland
quote:
It's a cool subject, but I think tennis and golf are too hard to measure historically with the technology and court/course changes. In everything else, maybe shoes and some uniforms have gotten better.
You don't buy the argument that technology is a moot issue since the players play against each other and with equal equipment?
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