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re: Money Talk Reunion Thread
Posted on 1/31/15 at 11:47 am to RedStickBR
Posted on 1/31/15 at 11:47 am to RedStickBR
It is the widow maker. But you're right, it gets disconnected from fundamentals a lot more than copper or aluminum as an example. Not that demand for industrial commodities has anything to do with the liberal "recovery" as of late.
Look, you're correct that 85% of the retail guys are gambling, but the guy that did most of the leg work in the natty gas thread isn't exactly one of these. He's pretty sharp, although the thread title should likely be renamed "BOIL is ALMOST always predictable, but sometimes not very much!" We all took a hit this winter, but for me it dropped my gains to about 23% instead of the 60% I was at in October.
With respect to penny stocks, National Bank of Greece is worth the risk to me. Freddie and Fannie as well. The difference is that at least they do something, unlike what 80% of the guys are posting about in that thread.
I'm just saying I like to have some small percentage of my available liquid funds in a high risk, high reward play that is at least based on some logic.
I'm also saying most all of my losers are posted on here. I lost money last year trading. First time in a long time, but it happens. I limit my losses, take a break, regroup and move on.
Look, you're correct that 85% of the retail guys are gambling, but the guy that did most of the leg work in the natty gas thread isn't exactly one of these. He's pretty sharp, although the thread title should likely be renamed "BOIL is ALMOST always predictable, but sometimes not very much!" We all took a hit this winter, but for me it dropped my gains to about 23% instead of the 60% I was at in October.
With respect to penny stocks, National Bank of Greece is worth the risk to me. Freddie and Fannie as well. The difference is that at least they do something, unlike what 80% of the guys are posting about in that thread.
I'm just saying I like to have some small percentage of my available liquid funds in a high risk, high reward play that is at least based on some logic.
I'm also saying most all of my losers are posted on here. I lost money last year trading. First time in a long time, but it happens. I limit my losses, take a break, regroup and move on.
2
Posted on 1/31/15 at 12:47 pm to Iowa Golfer
I was talking about the OP in that thread. I never read much past the first few pages, but he's been a stubborn dumbass on many topics that he is in way over his head on. With that said, he does do a lot of research and I respect that. If he ate a slice of humble pie, he would be a much better investor and poster.
i wouldn't classify stocks over a dollar as penny stocks, but I understand your point and don't disagree with it. There will be some interesting equity from E&P companies pretty soon.
i wouldn't classify stocks over a dollar as penny stocks, but I understand your point and don't disagree with it. There will be some interesting equity from E&P companies pretty soon.
Posted on 1/31/15 at 2:01 pm to Iowa Golfer
I just don't even think it's almost always predictable. Even though the supply side can be forecasted, short-term demand is almost entirely due to weather, which is inherently unpredictable, at least in any sort of fundamental value sort of understanding. Sure, we can make long-term demand projections, such as those expected increases associated with future coal-to-natural gas switching in the power generation space, but the market refuses to be forward-looking for more than just a few weeks out. It's the most speculative contract on the planet and should be reserved primarily for industrial hedging purposes.
One could presumably go way out on the curve with less speculation, but let's face it, those people in that thread are trying to make short-term calls, and the more "predictable" they think it is, the more likely they are to lose all or most of their money.
One could presumably go way out on the curve with less speculation, but let's face it, those people in that thread are trying to make short-term calls, and the more "predictable" they think it is, the more likely they are to lose all or most of their money.
This post was edited on 1/31/15 at 2:03 pm
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