re: Opinions on market direction considering economy, margin debt, & valuation

I find it pretty interesting, especially after what we've all lived through these last 7-8 years, that only now are "experts" discussing deflation. Doesn't matter, the same "experts", probably arriving at the party late again, will eventually be discussing inflation. As they just were. Before they (some of them) decided to shift to deflation.

It's almost like a horoscope with some of these folks. Make it ambiguous enough and always claim to be clairvoyant.

I'm convinced none of the "experts", including the extremely successful ones, are significantly more accurate than the average Joe. Now I do think the successful traders and investors are more accurate, but not significantly more accurate. They just do this full time. Same with economists.

Perhaps the worst of them all is the government. Anyone read their short term energy outlook? Published in December.

I guess back to the OP's original question. I don't have any answers, but I'd sure like to hear what you think. I do tend to believe the adjusted p.e. ratio is something to pay attention to. Margin debt to the extent it is retail margin debt. Institutional margin likely shouldn't be a concern.