He also claims Baylor would be 7.5 favorites over Ohio State on a neutral field this weekend. I'm not sure how accurate this guys numbers are.

Doing a bit of research I saw an interview. Here are some pieces of it:

You opened at Alabama minus-10, significantly higher than what John Avello did at the Wynn. Avello opened at -7. Why the bigger number?

Q: How much is LSU’s home-field worth to the spread?
Salmons: I always chuckle when people say this place or this place is a hard place to play. The only true home-field advantage is if you play in higher altitude.
Q: But still Death Valley at night has to be considered one of the toughest places to play in college football, right?
Salmons: Are you kidding me? If Alabama gets up early, those fans are going to be booing LSU. Death Valley will become Boo Valley.
Q: So you’re saying that Tiger Stadium is worth just the standard three-point home field advantage?
Salmons: In this game, it’s probably worth less.

So if he opened 3 points off from a different line in real life, I have no trouble believing he would make up inflated claims on games that he never has to pay the piper on(Baylor one worse than this IMO). I think Florida State would end up being more like 3.5 point favorites before all would be said and done. But they haven't been a great spread-covering team this year.

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Posted by Overbrook

Member since May 2013

6092 posts

Posted on 11/23/14 at 8:47 am to TheSexecutioner

For sure FSU would be favored by under a TD; probably around 4 or 5 against Arkansas. Baylor would be favored over Ohio State, but only by a couple of points.
As for home field advantage, he's right. the only intrinsic advantage occur in the elevation stadiums. Now some teams handle crowd noise better than others. And he's right about the raging crowds - when things go bad, they get eerily quiet and that works against the home team.

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Posted by DallasTiger11