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re: OFFICIAL Week 11 CFB bet thread - dcrews, I need you

Posted on 11/7/14 at 8:48 am to
Posted by jac1280
Member since Dec 2007
5380 posts
Posted on 11/7/14 at 8:48 am to
bump for tonight's big games in the American and Mountain West conferences

Memphis (-7.5) at Temple

Utah St. (-7.5) at Wyoming
Posted by MillerMan
West U, Houston, TX
Member since Aug 2010
6512 posts
Posted on 11/7/14 at 8:49 am to
One of those home dogs will cover...haven't put my finger in which one just yet though
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25309 posts
Posted on 11/7/14 at 8:52 am to
Both home teams are coming off big wins last week.

Memphis seems like a solid teaser opportunity with the low total - I don't see them losing to Temple but it might be a close game. Memphis is a class above Temple.

Utah State is on QB #4 due to crazy injuries. They've been a hot team but I like Wyoming catching the hook.

Wyo +14 /Memphis -1 will be a Friday Night play for me.
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 11/7/14 at 9:05 am to
YTD: 21-18-3; +1*

1* Wake Forest +21 WIN


1* Notre Dame +2½
2* Minnesota pick
1* Oklahoma -5
1* Virginia +20½
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25309 posts
Posted on 11/7/14 at 9:13 am to
quote:

1* Notre Dame +2½


I agree with this. Notre Dame is the superior team and should win the game. I'll probably sprinkle the ML.

quote:

2* Minnesota pick


Iowa has been one of the tougher teams to handicap this year. What do you like about the Gophers? Seems like two evenly matched teams.

quote:

1* Oklahoma -5


I like the Sooners as well but I was hoping the line would closer to 3.

quote:

1* Virginia +20½


Virginia has been poor the last 3 weeks and FSU is getting healthier. I do like UVA simply bc Free Shoes @ Miami is on deck next week in a huge game and they probably won't be overly focused for this contest.
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 11/7/14 at 9:25 am to
quote:

What do you like about the Gophers? Seems like two evenly matched teams.


Very even so that favors the home team in my analysis. Plus high RLM on this game as most of the public cards are on Iowa.

quote:

I like the Sooners as well but I was hoping the line would closer to 3.


whenever i see a -5, it screams to me that the one team is much significantly better than the other; OU is still a top ten talent wise. Just my two pennies.
Posted by Dr Rosenrosen
Member since May 2006
3374 posts
Posted on 11/7/14 at 9:37 am to
Thank God almighty I didn't take Clemson or the under last night.

I am booked on ND and Kansas State.
This post was edited on 11/7/14 at 9:56 am
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25309 posts
Posted on 11/7/14 at 10:37 am to
quote:

whenever i see a -5, it screams to me that the one team is much significantly better than the other; OU is still a top ten talent wise. Just my two pennies.


Yeah I like aggressive lines like this sometimes - it can often lull the bettor into a false sense of security regarding the underdog.
Posted by Dr Rosenrosen
Member since May 2006
3374 posts
Posted on 11/7/14 at 10:44 am to
I concur on the Sooners. I think OU wins big.

Baylor's OFFENSE actually struggled mightily against WVU and Texas. That's a huge red flag here IMO.
Posted by jac1280
Member since Dec 2007
5380 posts
Posted on 11/7/14 at 10:56 am to
For those following the public betting trends for tonight's game, Temple is now a slight public lean at 51%. They were in the high 30s/low 40s earlier in the week.

For those betting guru's, what's your take on the late public surge for Temple?

TIA
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25309 posts
Posted on 11/7/14 at 11:12 am to
The public saw Temple's straight up win vs. ECU as a 8 point underdog last week and thinks they can replicate it vs. Memphis.

However, if you look into the box score, ECU outgained Temple by a large margin, just derped multiple untimely turnovers.

This game is lay it or don't play it for me - trusting a public dog is not a typical situation I get on board with.
Posted by blades8088
Covington
Member since Nov 2008
4202 posts
Posted on 11/7/14 at 11:14 am to
quote:

trusting a public dog is not a typical situation I get on board with.


This is normally bad news
Posted by B1rdman15
The Office
Member since Feb 2010
5146 posts
Posted on 11/7/14 at 11:16 am to
quote:

Memphis (-7.5) at Temple


Really hoping this gets bought down. Memphis is a strong team by Memphis standards this year. Hopefully tourist money gets put on Temple after they beat ECU last week.
Posted by jac1280
Member since Dec 2007
5380 posts
Posted on 11/7/14 at 11:20 am to
Temple has a decent defense though, according to the Defense Efficiency rankings. They are 19th.

Also, Temple has the 3rd best Special Teams Efficiency ranking as well.

So,

Edit: And they are at home on a Friday night
This post was edited on 11/7/14 at 11:21 am
Posted by MillerMan
West U, Houston, TX
Member since Aug 2010
6512 posts
Posted on 11/7/14 at 11:22 am to
quote:

Temple has a decent defense though, according to the Defense Efficiency rankings. They are 19th.

Also, Temple has the 3rd best Special Teams Efficiency ranking as well.


All that and they are still a 7.5 point home dog usually tells me something.
Posted by jac1280
Member since Dec 2007
5380 posts
Posted on 11/7/14 at 11:25 am to
You are probably right. I am very new to this betting thing.

Temple is 112th in Offense Efficiency.
Posted by jac1280
Member since Dec 2007
5380 posts
Posted on 11/7/14 at 11:29 am to
ECU Temple

1st Downs 30 10
Total Yards 428 135
Passing 217 70
Rushing 211 65
Penalties 12-116 7-65
3rd Down Conversions 9-16 4-14
4th Down Conversions 0-2 0-0
Turnovers 5 0
Possession 30:59 28:50


This post was edited on 11/7/14 at 11:30 am
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16840 posts
Posted on 11/7/14 at 12:27 pm to
Dook -3 (-125) LARGE
Marshall -25
Posted by maclauer
Member since Nov 2011
4765 posts
Posted on 11/7/14 at 1:04 pm to
Final card:
LSU +6.5
Minnesota -1
Oklahoma -5
Utah +8.5
Boston College +3
Vandy +14.5
Texas +3.5


Posted by jembeurt
Raceland
Member since Apr 2008
8810 posts
Posted on 11/7/14 at 1:07 pm to
Already locked in:

LSU +7 (-115)
Arizona -16.5 (-120)
Minnesota -115
This post was edited on 11/7/14 at 1:09 pm
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