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Message
Oct 29th Fed Statement
Posted on 10/30/14 at 10:20 am
Posted on 10/30/14 at 10:20 am
LINK
QE is officially over.
I'm guessing on interest rate increase in the next 12 to 18 months.
QE is officially over.
quote:
Moreover, the Committee continues to see sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing progress toward maximum employment in a context of price stability. Accordingly, the Committee decided to conclude its asset purchase program this month.
I'm guessing on interest rate increase in the next 12 to 18 months.
quote:
The Committee anticipates, based on its current assessment, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program this month, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated.
Posted on 10/30/14 at 10:25 am to LSU0358
Does this mean mortgage rates will start slowly moving upward? I have a house being built but I cannot lock in until January
Posted on 10/30/14 at 4:24 pm to LSU0358
quote:
I'm guessing on interest rate increase in the next 12 to 18 months.
Still looking like the June/July FOMC meeting, Yellen one time indirectly clarified the "considerable time" clause to mean somewhere in the range of 6-10 months which lands us right around those summer meetings.
Interestingly enough the markets seem to be pricing in later, around October. It was about 60-70% priced in for the first hike in June before the recent correction, then Eurodollar and OIS curves indicated a December hike following the risk sell-off and corresponding Fed member speeches acknowledging the sell-off. Now it seems to have settled half-way between.
I still think a July hike is the most probable, and if we keep getting economic data as strong as we have then June looks even more likely.
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