re: OFFICIAL Week 6 CFB Betting Thread - Bring back the dcrews magic

Posted by LSUJuice

Back in Houston

Member since Apr 2004

17673 posts

Posted on 10/1/14 at 8:26 am to Zipfer2022

I think that line is just about right. Georgia isn't that great on defense. And Vandy does seem to be improving, although after the first two weeks there wasn't anywhere to go but up. Really, I think 28 or 31 is what it's going to be, so gun to my head I take Vandy.

Posted by rocket31

Member since Jan 2008

41819 posts

Posted on 10/1/14 at 8:57 am to Louie T

YTD: 9-9-1; -2*

2* Arizona +23½

This post was edited on 10/2/14 at 11:54 pm

Posted by Billy Mays

Member since Jan 2009

25283 posts

Posted on 10/1/14 at 9:19 am to BobRoss

quote:
I don't get this one. I think OU covers.

The public is absolutely hammering Oklahoma, but I still think they are the right side.

The only way you can back TCU is if you think they can win outright, IMO. I just can't see it. Their offense is very unproven.

Posted by goldennugget

Hating Masks

Member since Jul 2013

24514 posts

Posted on 10/1/14 at 9:20 am to Billy Mays

quote:
The public is absolutely hammering Oklahoma, but I still think they are the right side.

There is RLM on this game though... public all over Oklahoma yet the line has gone from -6 to -4

Posted by Billy Mays

Member since Jan 2009

25283 posts

Posted on 10/1/14 at 9:22 am to goldennugget

quote:

There is RLM on this game though... public all over Oklahoma yet the line has gone from -6 to -4

Yeah, Vegas is getting cute, trying to push the narrative that TCU is a live dog.

Just don't believe it.

Posted by rocket31

Member since Jan 2008

41819 posts

Posted on 10/1/14 at 9:22 am to Billy Mays

quote:
Their offense is very unproven

But their defense is the best in the conference and has even improved over last years quality.

Id stay away for sure, TCU is legit.

Posted by rocket31

Member since Jan 2008

41819 posts

Posted on 10/1/14 at 9:25 am to Billy Mays

quote:
Vegas is getting cute, trying to push the narrative that TCU is a live dog.

"Vegas" had similar line movements with Missouri/Indiana and ND/Michigan

Public hammering Missouri and Michigan and yet the line was going the other way...and Vegas absolutely smashed it by encouraging more wagers on the wrong side. A thing of beauty really.

This post was edited on 10/1/14 at 9:27 am

Posted by goldennugget

Hating Masks

Member since Jul 2013

24514 posts

Posted on 10/1/14 at 9:26 am to Billy Mays

quote:
Yeah, Vegas is getting cute, trying to push the narrative that TCU is a live dog.

My opinion is that the smart/sharp money has come in on the Frogs and they are not comfortable moving the line to encourage more action on them, so are keeping it at 4/5.

If they wanted more TCU action the line would be 6.5-7 right now

Posted by Billy Mays

Member since Jan 2009

25283 posts

Posted on 10/1/14 at 9:30 am to rocket31

Yeah it is similar, but this line move is more window dressing than anything. Few games fall in the 6 to 4 window. It's a dead zone since the key numbers are 3 and 7.

I'll contend to look at it one way. If I think TCU can win this game outright, I'll play them on the ML. If I don't, I'll back OU minus the points. The move is negligible.

Is one of the best teams in the country going to lose straight up to TCU? I can't buy that story right now from what I've seen.

Posted by goldennugget

Hating Masks

Member since Jul 2013

24514 posts

Posted on 10/1/14 at 10:19 am to Billy Mays

quote:
Is one of the best teams in the country going to lose straight up to TCU? I can't buy that story right now from what I've seen.

The key to the game will be TCU's offensive execution. We already know their defense is good enough to hold Oklahoma in the 20s.

From what I have seen from them this year they still are pretty bad in short yardage situations and 3rd downs in general, so TCU will need some big plays and to force turnovers to win the field position war.

Posted by blades8088

Covington

Member since Nov 2008

4202 posts

Posted on 10/1/14 at 11:25 am to goldennugget

Not to mention OUs defense. I just cant see Boykin out scoring Knight. TCU has yet to play anyone with a pulse yet so we are still in a spot going off of how they performed last year. The only team theyve faced with a semi pulse is Minny and they only put up 30.

Posted by BayouBengals03

lsu14always

Member since Nov 2007

99999 posts

Posted on 10/1/14 at 11:26 am to dhav14

Oklahoma is only giving 4 points? wtf?

Posted by blades8088

Covington

Member since Nov 2008

4202 posts

Posted on 10/1/14 at 11:27 am to blades8088

With that said these are the teams I may possibly be on this week. With about 5 or 6 depending on what the line does
ECU 1H&TT Win Action
WVU
NIU**
Rutgers**
NT
WF
Akron
Virginia**
Baylor
MTSU
Rutgers
Sparty
Boise

Posted by BayouBengals03

lsu14always

Member since Nov 2007

99999 posts

Posted on 10/1/14 at 11:30 am to rocket31

quote:
"Vegas" had similar line movements with Missouri/Indiana and ND/Michigan

Public hammering Missouri and Michigan and yet the line was going the other way...and Vegas absolutely smashed it by encouraging more wagers on the wrong side. A thing of beauty really.

I'll pretty much avoid any game with RLM, but damn 4 is tempting.

Posted by maclauer

Member since Nov 2011

4765 posts

Posted on 10/1/14 at 11:34 am to blades8088

quote:
The only team theyve faced with a semi pulse is Minny and they only put up 30

They were up 24-0 at half and sat on them. Don't see the issue here. TCU's defense is pretty good, too.

Posted by BobRoss

Member since Jun 2014

1694 posts

Posted on 10/1/14 at 11:38 am to BayouBengals03

Oct 03 CFB [314] BYU -1300
Oct 04 CFB [332] VIRGINIA -250
Oct 04 CFB [339] MARSHALL -900
Oct 04 CFB [364] COLORADO STATE -650
Oct 04 CFB [390] LOUISIANA TECH -475
Oct 04 CFB [392] MIDDLE TENN ST -900
Oct 04 CFB [398] TEXAS STATE -800

ML Parlay

Posted by ChemE in the OP

The Flats

Member since Apr 2011

6382 posts

Posted on 10/1/14 at 12:08 pm to BobRoss

All this conversation about OU wants to make me bet TCU...