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re: Question RE: ISIS
Posted on 6/13/14 at 10:48 am to blowmeauburn
Posted on 6/13/14 at 10:48 am to blowmeauburn
There are 5 main groups in the Middle East: Israelis (Jews), Kurds, Sunnis (Arabs), shiites (Persians), and Turks.
Rule #1: Everyone hates everyone.
In all of the nations of the Middle East, there are Sunni and Shiite populations, generally with one in the majority and one in the minority. In Middle East Democracies, the majority is in charge. In Military Dictatorships, the minority is in charge. The Kurds have no countries where they are in the majority. Their territory is in Eastern Syria and Turkey, Northern Iraq, and North-Western Iran. They are a mostly peaceful people and their regions of those countries are generally very business friendly and stable when they're not getting gas attacked by one of the other 3 Muslim groups.
The main Sunni powers are Saudi Arabia, Jordan, UAE, Dubai, Quatar, ect. Basically, your Arab states. In all of those Arab countries, a Sunni king rules over a nation that is generally majority or slightly minority Sunni.
The main Shiite run countries are Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. However, Syria, being a military dictatorship, has a majority Sunni population. Right now, they're Sunnis are rebelling against the Shiite government run by Assad.
The main Shiite paramilitary powers are Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Shiite militias in Iraq.
The main Sunni paramilitary powers are Al-Qaeda, The Taliban, ISIS, and Hamas.
In the middle East, you have several levels of hate:
Hate level 1: the universal disdain that every ethnic group has for America
Hate Level 2: the universal disdain that every ethnic group has for each other
Hate level 3: The hatred the Sunnis, Turks, and Shias have for the Kurds
Hate level 4: the level of hatred the Sunnis, Shias, Kurds, and Turks have for the Jews.
Basically, the different Sects won't work together to fight the U.S. most of the time. The will occasionally work together to fight each other. All of the other Muslim groups will work together to fight the Kurds, and all 4 Muslim groups (including Kurds) will work together to fight the Jews.
In the Middle East, the U.S. generally supports 4, often mutually exclusive, things: Democracy, the safety of U.S. citizens and trade, the safety of Israel, and the interests of Saudi Arabia. It is easy to see where these things can clash.
In Iraq, we supported democracy and the interests of American businesses, but in the process, we made Israel less safe by removing an Israeli ally and replacing it with a government that has close ties to an Israeli enemy (Iran). This also went against the interests of Saudi Arabia.
In Syria and Lybia, we were supporting democracy, but bankrolling Al Qaeda-aligned terrorist groups and going against our security/business interests. For Israel, the region is destabilized. Removing Qaddafi hurt them, but removing Assad may help or hurt them depending on what groups gain power in the end.
In Egypt, we sided with democracy, which Hurt business interests and Israel's security. The new military rule there goes against democracy, but helps to save Israel from potential war in the Sinai.
In Iran, we took no side. We abandoned democracy, Israel, our business interests, and the Saudis for no reason right as the current regime was on the verge of falling to a more sympathetic challenger.
Rule #1: Everyone hates everyone.
In all of the nations of the Middle East, there are Sunni and Shiite populations, generally with one in the majority and one in the minority. In Middle East Democracies, the majority is in charge. In Military Dictatorships, the minority is in charge. The Kurds have no countries where they are in the majority. Their territory is in Eastern Syria and Turkey, Northern Iraq, and North-Western Iran. They are a mostly peaceful people and their regions of those countries are generally very business friendly and stable when they're not getting gas attacked by one of the other 3 Muslim groups.
The main Sunni powers are Saudi Arabia, Jordan, UAE, Dubai, Quatar, ect. Basically, your Arab states. In all of those Arab countries, a Sunni king rules over a nation that is generally majority or slightly minority Sunni.
The main Shiite run countries are Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. However, Syria, being a military dictatorship, has a majority Sunni population. Right now, they're Sunnis are rebelling against the Shiite government run by Assad.
The main Shiite paramilitary powers are Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Shiite militias in Iraq.
The main Sunni paramilitary powers are Al-Qaeda, The Taliban, ISIS, and Hamas.
In the middle East, you have several levels of hate:
Hate level 1: the universal disdain that every ethnic group has for America
Hate Level 2: the universal disdain that every ethnic group has for each other
Hate level 3: The hatred the Sunnis, Turks, and Shias have for the Kurds
Hate level 4: the level of hatred the Sunnis, Shias, Kurds, and Turks have for the Jews.
Basically, the different Sects won't work together to fight the U.S. most of the time. The will occasionally work together to fight each other. All of the other Muslim groups will work together to fight the Kurds, and all 4 Muslim groups (including Kurds) will work together to fight the Jews.
In the Middle East, the U.S. generally supports 4, often mutually exclusive, things: Democracy, the safety of U.S. citizens and trade, the safety of Israel, and the interests of Saudi Arabia. It is easy to see where these things can clash.
In Iraq, we supported democracy and the interests of American businesses, but in the process, we made Israel less safe by removing an Israeli ally and replacing it with a government that has close ties to an Israeli enemy (Iran). This also went against the interests of Saudi Arabia.
In Syria and Lybia, we were supporting democracy, but bankrolling Al Qaeda-aligned terrorist groups and going against our security/business interests. For Israel, the region is destabilized. Removing Qaddafi hurt them, but removing Assad may help or hurt them depending on what groups gain power in the end.
In Egypt, we sided with democracy, which Hurt business interests and Israel's security. The new military rule there goes against democracy, but helps to save Israel from potential war in the Sinai.
In Iran, we took no side. We abandoned democracy, Israel, our business interests, and the Saudis for no reason right as the current regime was on the verge of falling to a more sympathetic challenger.
This post was edited on 6/13/14 at 10:57 am
5
Posted on 6/13/14 at 10:51 am to kingbob
quote:
They are a mostly peaceful people and their regions of those countries are generally very business friendly and stable when they're not getting gas attacked by one of the other 3 Muslim groups.
Sounds like my type of people. Let's be friends with them. frick everyone else.
Posted on 6/13/14 at 10:58 am to kingbob
ISIS has not been trained by US forces. They are radical Sunni (more radical than Al Qaeda), who instantly kill apostates. Their leader has a phd in Islamic Studies. Like Bin Laden, it is his way or the highway, when it comes to Islam. They are so treacherous that the Iraqi Army in Mosul rans like chickens.
The Sunnis were left on the outside after the fall of Saddam. Bush's hand pick successor ended up being Maliki, who is Shia, is aligned with Iran. The US spent $17 billion training Maliki's military, but they have been unable to rid Iraq of ISIS & groups like that.
Al Qaeda, ISIS, and the like were not present in Iraq at the time of the US invasion in 2003. US intervention attracted them to Iraq. There are all kinds of splinter organizations.
The Sunnis were left on the outside after the fall of Saddam. Bush's hand pick successor ended up being Maliki, who is Shia, is aligned with Iran. The US spent $17 billion training Maliki's military, but they have been unable to rid Iraq of ISIS & groups like that.
Al Qaeda, ISIS, and the like were not present in Iraq at the time of the US invasion in 2003. US intervention attracted them to Iraq. There are all kinds of splinter organizations.
Posted on 6/13/14 at 11:58 am to kingbob
quote:
Hate level 4: the level of hatred the Sunnis, Shias, Kurds, and Turks have for the Jews.
The Kurds don't really hate the Jews.
Posted on 6/13/14 at 12:14 pm to kingbob
quote:
The main Sunni powers are Saudi Arabia, Jordan, UAE, Dubai, Quatar, ect. Basically, your Arab states.
Not completely inaccurate.
Of course, the Turks are Sunni as well (as are the Albanians, relatively solid U.S. allies, particularly in Kosovo).
quote:
The main Shiite run countries are Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria.
WTF? You would have been a helluva lot better off if you'd said, "The main Sh'ia power is Iran, and they have influence in many areas."
Pakistan? Sunni. Afghanistan? Sunni. Syria? Majority Sunni with a secular, Ba'athist government. Iraq - a majority Sh'ia population, with an ostensibly multi-ethnic government - however, strongly influenced by Iran - so fair enough to include them.
Much of the conflict is ethnic versus religious (and religion is sometimes a proxy for ethnicity, thus complicating things further). The Turks DGAF about your brand of Islam, particularly if you're a Kurd and vice versa - there is and old world, almost prehistoric hate between those groups.
Posted on 6/13/14 at 2:36 pm to kingbob
Sorry I disappeared after starting this thread, got caught up with work.
Wanted to thank those who came and tried to shed some more light on the topic. Y'all did a much better job than I can of explaining the cluster f*ck in the ME.
I would still like someone to do some further reporting RE: the amount of assistance that was given. Even if ISIS isn't the same faction we supplied training and weapons to, they are fighting together in Syria, and I would have to assume benefited in some form or fashion. I remember hearing that some of the more advanced shoulder fire systems had been provided with fingerprint locks, but Im sure that wasn't all we gave.
Wanted to thank those who came and tried to shed some more light on the topic. Y'all did a much better job than I can of explaining the cluster f*ck in the ME.
I would still like someone to do some further reporting RE: the amount of assistance that was given. Even if ISIS isn't the same faction we supplied training and weapons to, they are fighting together in Syria, and I would have to assume benefited in some form or fashion. I remember hearing that some of the more advanced shoulder fire systems had been provided with fingerprint locks, but Im sure that wasn't all we gave.
This post was edited on 6/13/14 at 2:39 pm
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