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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread
Posted on 8/22/14 at 8:02 am to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 8/22/14 at 8:02 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
I'm not even going to pretend to know whats going to happen with this thing
Yeah, I'm sure there is some heated debates at NHC over this one. It is a tricky forecast for sure and it looks like it could be a close call either way.
Look at the 500 mb setup from the 06z GFS above. That circle highlights the split in the flow and the system could go either way as it approaches that. If vorticity consolidates on the northern end of 96L over the next 36 hrs or if it goes on a strengthening cycle then it probably takes the hard right turn. On the other hand, if vorticity consolidates farther south then continuing west looks like the option. However, even slight changes in the 500 mb pattern could result in that window shifting north or south and that could also make a huge difference.
3
Posted on 8/22/14 at 9:20 am to rds dc
A few things from the 12z CIMSS analysis:
Posted on 8/22/14 at 9:50 am to rds dc
Wouldn't you think that it's less likely that it consolidates to the south, since that's closer to land?
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