quote:
Is it good that this storm in the Gulf is slow to form, or does that mean it'll hit hard once it forms in the nursery that is thr Gulf...rather than keep stalling more near the Atlantic?

well, it's not in the gulf. And TBH I'm not even going to pretend to know whats going to happen with this thing until it organizes and/or recon finds a valid center.

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Posted by Zephyrius

Wharton, La.

Member since Dec 2004

7968 posts

Posted on 8/22/14 at 8:01 am to GEAUXmedic

Just an observation on some radars I've seen... but are we looking at 2 storms in that large area of disturbance. One which will break towards the east coast and the other which appears to be just below Puerto Rico which will head towards the gulf?

This post was edited on 8/22/14 at 9:46 am

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Posted by rds dc

Member since Jun 2008

19814 posts

Posted on 8/22/14 at 8:02 am to GEAUXmedic

quote:
I'm not even going to pretend to know whats going to happen with this thing

Yeah, I'm sure there is some heated debates at NHC over this one. It is a tricky forecast for sure and it looks like it could be a close call either way.

Look at the 500 mb setup from the 06z GFS above. That circle highlights the split in the flow and the system could go either way as it approaches that. If vorticity consolidates on the northern end of 96L over the next 36 hrs or if it goes on a strengthening cycle then it probably takes the hard right turn. On the other hand, if vorticity consolidates farther south then continuing west looks like the option. However, even slight changes in the 500 mb pattern could result in that window shifting north or south and that could also make a huge difference.

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