re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread

Thank the lawd

This isn't Louisiana's year anyway.

2002 - Lili
2005 - Katrina & Rita
2008 - Gustav
2012 - Issac
2015 or 2016 - ???

Every 3 or 4 years since 2002 Louisiana has been hit by a substantial storm.

Any new updates on models?

quote:

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spoken like a true weatherman

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Until I find a crystal ball, I'm listening to the weathermen. They're right more than I am and that's enough for me.

As of 3pm:

1. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the circulation associated with the small low pressure area
approaching the Leeward Islands is poorly defined. In addition, the
associated shower activity has decreased during the past few hours.
The aircraft did, however, find a small area of tropical-storm-force
winds on the northeast side of the low. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some development during the next
day or so, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could still
form while the system moves west-northwestward at around 20 mph
across the Lesser Antilles. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola
could limit development during the first part of the weekend, but
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by
Sunday when the system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the
Bahamas should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system again tomorrow afternoon.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

There isn't much to comment on tonight. 96L is still a disorganized mess and looks like crap. The latest KW has been a bit slow with its eastward propagation but 96L might get a bump from it over the next 2 or 3 days.

The models have trended pretty hard to an OTS solution over the past 24 hours. However, the HWRF has been pretty steady with bringing the system into S. Florida:



Dr. Masters has a nice article on hurricane models
here. He has some analysis that shows that the HWRF model has been pretty good so far this season (it was recently updated):



In addition to the HWRF, the Euro EPS is still indicating that a Gulf threat should be consider as a possibility (about 1/5 of the members). In fact, the 12z Euro EPS is more supportive of the HWRF than the Euro operational. And by day 7, the Euro EPS is highlighting two distinct possibilities that are at odds with the Euro operational.

Is there a link that lists some of the acronyms you use?

OTS
KW
OTC
MDR
and MJO

Well, tonight most models are trending west again, except GFS.. still waiting for the Euro.

CMC takes it to MS/AL, NAVGEM takes it to the carolinas, barely touching the coast then out to sea, HWRF goes to south florida, GFS is a fish.. but the way all of these models have swung back and forth (except HWRF), its just crazy. Personally I'm leaning more towards an east coast storm than a GOM storm.. but the only thing we can pretty much count on is that there will be a storm, in the bahamas, with ripe conditions for intensification.. anything after that is a tossup.

EDIT: 00Z HWRF is coming out now, so far its more north than before passing north of the DR rather than straight through it.. so we'll see.

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Everyone should avoid looking at the 00z Canadian model

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