re: Official Belmont Thread.

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Here's my take on the race. Matterhorn and Matuszak don't belong with this class of horses so they are immediate toss outs for me. I agree with everything SoGaFan said about Wicked Strong and Tonalist, and they will be over-bet, so I'm not using them. I want horses with value in my exotics. Commissioner is a toss for similar reasons as Tonalist. I think Ride On Curlin is going bounce this race, so I'm not using him. This leaves 5 horses. I think the pace is going to be honest, so I'm leaning less towards closer type horses like Commanding Curve and more towards horses that stick around the lead or middle of the race, regardless of the 1 1/2 mile distance (Brisnet indicates that early speed horses win 43% of the route races on dirt at Belmont). I have liked Samraat all spring, but I just don't know if he can make the distance of the Belmont. I don't think Medal Count is fast enough to win the Belmont, but his breeding suggests he should at least be able to handle the distance. I liked General a Rod as a 2 year old and I think he is improving, and I also have a gut feeling he is going to run a good race. I thought since April that California Chrome was the best 3 year old in the country, and he hasn't proven me wrong yet, so I'm sticking with him. I'm thinking CC for the win, General a Rod place, Medal Count show, Samraat 4th. I was originally thinking about keying CC to win in the trifecta and box Medal Count, General a Rod, and Samraat for place show. But I'll probably box those first three in a trifecta because I'm not as confident about CC winning the Belmont as I was the Kentucky Derby and Preakness due to the distance of the race. Now I probably jinxed these horses so bet accordingly.

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