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Started By
Message
El Nino's effect on Hurricane Season
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:07 am
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:07 am
Everything I'm reading suggests a weak hurricane season this year due to a potential strong El Nino year.
However, looking at the El Nino years vs. La Nina years, it seems as though we've been affected by some pretty intense and/or memorable hurricanes/tropical storms in past El Nino years.
1965 = Strong El Nino year
- Cat 4 Hurricane Betsy, Grande Isle
1957 = Strong El Nino year
- Cat 4 Hurricane Audry, southwest Louisiana
1969 = Weak El Nino year
- Cat 5 Hurricane Camille, Louisiana/Miss border
1997 = Strong El Nino year
- Cat 1 Hurricane Danny, Plaquimines Parish
2002 = Moderate El Nino year
- Tropical Storm Isidore, Southeast Louisiana
2002 = Moderate El Nino year
- Cat 2 Hurricane Lili, South-central Louisiana
To be fair, the most memorable hurricanes in our recent history are from La Nina years:
1. Cat 2/3 Hurricane Gustav (2008)
2. Cat 3/4 Hurricane Katrina (2005)
Cat 3 Hurricane Andrew (1992) was neither a La Nina or El Nino year but 1991-92 (year prior) was in fact a Moderate El Nino year.
What does the OT's meteorologists think about this. It seems as though some of our strongest or most memorable storms in history have been split pretty much down the middle as far as being in an El Nino or La Nina year. Of course, it's not how many form in a single year but whether or not one makes landfall that matters.
Discuss!
However, looking at the El Nino years vs. La Nina years, it seems as though we've been affected by some pretty intense and/or memorable hurricanes/tropical storms in past El Nino years.
1965 = Strong El Nino year
- Cat 4 Hurricane Betsy, Grande Isle
1957 = Strong El Nino year
- Cat 4 Hurricane Audry, southwest Louisiana
1969 = Weak El Nino year
- Cat 5 Hurricane Camille, Louisiana/Miss border
1997 = Strong El Nino year
- Cat 1 Hurricane Danny, Plaquimines Parish
2002 = Moderate El Nino year
- Tropical Storm Isidore, Southeast Louisiana
2002 = Moderate El Nino year
- Cat 2 Hurricane Lili, South-central Louisiana
To be fair, the most memorable hurricanes in our recent history are from La Nina years:
1. Cat 2/3 Hurricane Gustav (2008)
2. Cat 3/4 Hurricane Katrina (2005)
Cat 3 Hurricane Andrew (1992) was neither a La Nina or El Nino year but 1991-92 (year prior) was in fact a Moderate El Nino year.
What does the OT's meteorologists think about this. It seems as though some of our strongest or most memorable storms in history have been split pretty much down the middle as far as being in an El Nino or La Nina year. Of course, it's not how many form in a single year but whether or not one makes landfall that matters.
Discuss!
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:08 am to TDsngumbo
you can not predict future events based on past results
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:09 am to TDsngumbo
El Niño is Spanish for...........
The Niño
The Niño
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:09 am to BigHoss
quote:
you can not predict future events based on past results
I'm pretty sure anyone with any meteorological knowledge would disagree with you on this one when it comes to general forecasting of hurricanes.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:10 am to TDsngumbo
How many times does a statistical aberration have to occur to no longer be an aberration?
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:11 am to TDsngumbo
Weather threads that aren't started by GeauxMedic make me feel uncomfortable.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:12 am to TDsngumbo
This year's El Nino isn't panning out to be as strong as everyone thought. Either way, as we have seen before in weak seasons all it takes is one (see 1992, 1957)
Also, don't put any stock into hurricane forecasts, there's a reason nobody wants to fund their studies anymore..
Also, don't put any stock into hurricane forecasts, there's a reason nobody wants to fund their studies anymore..
This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 9:15 am
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:12 am to GumboPot
quote:
How many times does a statistical aberration have to occur to no longer be an aberration?
your guess is as good as mine
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:13 am to Thib-a-doe Tiger
quote:
El Niño is Spanish for...........
The Niño
El Niño = The Boy
La Niña = The Girl
This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 9:18 am
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:15 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
La Niño = The Girl
Wrong.
La Niña.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:18 am to B1rdman15
quote:
La Niña.
I know, I copied the word to get the "ñ" and forgot to change it.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:20 am to GEAUXmedic
pretty sure he knew that. he was quoting chris farley.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:23 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
I'm pretty sure anyone with any meteorological knowledge would disagree with you on this one when it comes to general forecasting of hurricanes.
yeah, because they are so accurate when it comes to predicting named storms and landfalls
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:25 am to baytiger
I'll always remember Lili because when it was way offshore as a Cat1, we gathered up at the in-laws outside of Lafayette and started the old hurricane party. Just hours later (and a ton of drinks), it strengthened to a 5, and we were asked by the fire department to evacuate because of worries the Vermilion River would swamp us. It was quite an eventful drive from Laffy to other relatives, blitzed and having to stop and piss about every 10 minutes.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:31 am to jdd48
quote:
it strengthened to a 5,
Nope
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:33 am to jdd48
Lilli weakend before landfall man not the other way around
This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 9:34 am
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:34 am to tLSU
quote:
Nope
4 then. Close enough.
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:34 am to jdd48
Wrong again
Eta: I think I see what you're saying now
Eta: I think I see what you're saying now
This post was edited on 5/12/14 at 9:37 am
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:36 am to Pedro
Posted on 5/12/14 at 9:38 am to jdd48
Yra I edited. I understand what you're getting at now
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