re: CBO: Obamacare will have lower premiums, insure more, and cost government less

Wanna talk physics of economics and supply/demand?

Do you understand that the premiums in ACA this year were pre-set before they saw what the makeup of the pool would be? Do you understand that their prices were set based on projected pool demographics that were significantly better than what actually occurred?

I don't think you are really seeing the full picture with your supply/demand point. You are saying that the more people sign up, the less it costs? No! Because insurance companies can supply an infinite number of insurance policies. There is no limit, if you have the money...they will give it to you.

What IS limited? Doctors...General physicians to be exact. There was a shortage of nearly a quarter million general physicians back in 2008 when all this ACA crap was being discussed.

It has only gotten worse since that time as this very bill has caused many health care providers to re-evaluate their business model in favor of not doing work for certain insurance plans. While at the same time NOTHING has been done to decrease the barriers of entry of the profession. The reason the shortage is so pronounced in the general physician demographic, is because MED students often choose to enter into specialty medicine in order to be capable of paying off half a million in student loans quicker.

The physicians are the ones actually providing the goods. So what happens when MORE people want to use their nice pretty new insurance to see their physician because of an infection?

In 2006 Massachusetts enacted Romney care, which is essentially the model for ACA. Lets see what the Massachusetts Medical Society had to say in their ninth annual Patient Access to Care study.

quote:

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Primary Care Trend Data: Medical Society officials say the trend data for access to primary care shows cause for concern in all three primary care specialties. While the numbers have fluctuated from year to year, the percentage of family physicians accepting new patients has dropped 19% over the last seven years; the percentage of internists accepting new patients has plunged 21% over the last nine years; and the percentage of pediatricians accepting new patients has fallen 10% over the last four years.

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quote:

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Wide Variations Among Counties: Wide variations exist in average wait times from county to county. For family medicine, Suffolk County has the shortest average time at 16 days, and Franklin County has the longest average wait time at 106 days.

For internal medicine, average wait times run from 26 days in Worcester County and 28 days in Barnstable County, to 128 days in Bristol County, 63 days in Essex County, and 55 days in Norfolk County.

Wait times for new pediatric patients ranged from 13 days in Bristol County and 16 days in Plymouth County to 38 Days in Suffolk County and 44 days in Berkshire County.

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Mass. Medical Society Article

So what does the average individual do when he/she has a simple infection, but they have to wait maybe a month? They seek more immediate care (i.e. the ER). Costs for ER visits are astronomical compared to the costs for someone to see their general physician. So the market will essentially be driving those to less effective routes.






And here is a link from CNN that pretty much cements my comments.

Doctor Shortage, Increased Demand Could Crash Health Care System





IDGAF about the liberal vs conservative arguments on ACA. Its a cluster f* that was not put together with logic. There were no studies done on any pre-existing health care systems to determine what was best for the overall health care market. It was put together by a bunch of overpaid lawyers based on what Insurance companies would stomach.

A link pretty much cementing my comments...

Princeton study find US is an oligarchy