I guess that's the case because most drafts don't go 64 deep in expected starting talent. This coming draft is considered one of the deepest in a while and you'd be hard pressed to find any expert predicting that guys projected in the 3rd round stand a good chance of starting (there are always guys who have enough talent to start but fall for certain possible health or personal problems).
This means the expectation is that a 1st or 2nd rounder hits the ground as a starter (or major contributor) from the get go.

quote:
Now, with early round picks, the expectation is a lot higher than just contributing on the field. With a first or second round pick, an NFL team is expecting a player that can come in, start, and contribute for years to come. With that in mind, our second method for setting the bar for a “bust” is that the player starts for less than one year or plays less than 40 games in their career. Here's the same visual with the different way of measuring busts:

LINK

quote:
A couple of interesting notes from the graph. First, picking at the end of the second round only gives your team a 50% chance of finding a starter. Going towards the end of the round 3, your chance of finding a starter falls to ~30%.

LINK

quote:
Another interesting note, in the later rounds, an NFL team has a really slim chance of finding the next Tom Brady in round 6 or Donald Driver in round 7. The data shows that finding a starter in round 6 or 7 is only 10 - 20%. Further strengthening the argument to search for players that are effective on special teams in later rounds.

(Same Link as above)

It's common sense that it's harder to find starters in the later rounds because the talent pool gets smaller with each passing round. This isn't even considering what the odds are for finding talent in the UFA pool.

This post was edited on 4/13/14 at 11:23 am

1 ...

Report Post

Posted by bonethug0108

Avondale

Member since Mar 2013

12690 posts

Posted on 4/13/14 at 11:37 am to adono

I've read all that before and agree with most of it.

But you have to remember the draft is about long term and not just instant starters. 3rd rounders are expected to start eventually and/or be key role players. So I include them with the first and second round because they all should have starting potential.

Rounds 4-7 is where teams try to find gems, key special teams players, and guys that could do spot starts if needed.

So yeah we have found some better than expected players late, but so have many other teams.

I'm just pointing out that, while maybe lower than most teams, we still have a high number of misses (a lot of which didn't make the team or didn't even contribute much to special teams).

So again, I'm not saying we don't hit on late rounders or that we aren't around the top of the league. I'm saying the notion that some people have that we suck at rounds 1 and 2 and can hit on late rounders almost at will is quite silly.

We are better at rounds 1 and 2 and still good at the late rounds, but not insanely good. Just better than most.

1 ...

Report Post

Saints Talk - Replies to Post

Return To Board

Page 1

Return To Board