That's if you call the 3rd round late, which it isn't. Not sure why people think this.

Also, like I said(and you pointed out) we've only had 3 of our 8 2nd rounders. So adding that together with the 1st round that's 11 out of 16 picks.

Out of those 11, Brown was the only one we missed on(and he still started 22 games).

We've had 8 3rd rounders and missed on 4 of them.

We've had 6 4th rounders and missed on at least 3(jury still out on Toon).

We've had 8 5th rounders and missed on 4(though Ninkovich went on to star for the Pats).

We've had 5 6th rounders and missed on 4(jury still out on R. Johnson).

We've had 8 7th rounders and missed on 5(jury still out on M. Jones).

With 3rd round included that's 20 out of 35(with 3 pending) that we missed on. Or we missed on at least 57%, and as high as 66%.

Take out the 3rd round and we missed 16 of our 27(with 3 pending) late round picks, or 59% and as high as 70%.

Compare that to the 1 of 11, or 9%, missed in the 1st or 2nd(and that one miss still started 22 games) and you can see the myth take shape.

Yes we've hit in the later rounds, but we've had more opportunities to do so(12 1-2 round picks to 35 3-7 or 27 4-7 round picks).

Like I said, quality can be argued, but I don't care about the talent to pick level comparison because that is way beside the point here. Bush played a big role, as did Harper, Meachem, Ellis(for at least 2 years he did well; and trust me I hate him for 2011-12), Jenkins, Robinson, and Ingram. Hell even Brown played a big role though he was poor at it.

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the team under Payton has as many contributors

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2013 6th Rufus Johnson

Not saying he's a bust, but he did not contribute. Jury is out on him.

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2008 5th Carl Nicks

1st round talent.

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2009 5th Thomas Morstead

Punter so of course he's going to be late round.

So you pointed out 4 guys that are actual contributors that had late round grades at full time positions, only 2 so far which are absolutely gems, 1 who is still questionable, and 1 who has a ton of potential. Even adding in Nicks and Morstead, that's still 6 compared to 10 or 11.

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Who the hell said this? Point that out for me.

I'd have to go back and look, but a bunch of people last year around draft time, many of which are regulars.

This post was edited on 4/13/14 at 2:48 am

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Posted by adono

River Ridge

Member since Sep 2003

7307 posts

Posted on 4/13/14 at 11:14 am to bonethug0108

quote:
That's if you call the 3rd round late, which it isn't. Not sure why people think this.

I guess that's the case because most drafts don't go 64 deep in expected starting talent. This coming draft is considered one of the deepest in a while and you'd be hard pressed to find any expert predicting that guys projected in the 3rd round stand a good chance of starting (there are always guys who have enough talent to start but fall for certain possible health or personal problems).
This means the expectation is that a 1st or 2nd rounder hits the ground as a starter (or major contributor) from the get go.

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Now, with early round picks, the expectation is a lot higher than just contributing on the field. With a first or second round pick, an NFL team is expecting a player that can come in, start, and contribute for years to come. With that in mind, our second method for setting the bar for a “bust” is that the player starts for less than one year or plays less than 40 games in their career. Here's the same visual with the different way of measuring busts:

LINK

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A couple of interesting notes from the graph. First, picking at the end of the second round only gives your team a 50% chance of finding a starter. Going towards the end of the round 3, your chance of finding a starter falls to ~30%.

LINK

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Another interesting note, in the later rounds, an NFL team has a really slim chance of finding the next Tom Brady in round 6 or Donald Driver in round 7. The data shows that finding a starter in round 6 or 7 is only 10 - 20%. Further strengthening the argument to search for players that are effective on special teams in later rounds.

(Same Link as above)

It's common sense that it's harder to find starters in the later rounds because the talent pool gets smaller with each passing round. This isn't even considering what the odds are for finding talent in the UFA pool.

This post was edited on 4/13/14 at 11:23 am

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