re: Do you believe the US will win a World Cup in your lifetime?

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Well what specifically? That soccer seems to select for athletes with slow-twitch muscle fibers? Do you know who had the fastest top speed at the WC 2010? Javier Hernandez. Do you know what his top speed would translate to in 100 meters, if we are assuming a constant rate of speed from beginning to end? A time of 11.2, which wouldn't even qualify him for the finals of the LHSAA 100M dash. And let's not discount the evidence which shows that players for Danish club FC Copenhagen have a higher prevalence of slow-twitch muscle fibers than the average Danish male. And let's not discount the strong correlation between teams that run the farthest and teams that win the most.

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What the frick are you talking about? I do not have the slightest where this part of your post came from.

I understand that soccer is more geared to slow-twitch guys. I also understand the Lebrons of the world are fast-twitch. However, American athletes are not exclusively fast-twitch. You are acting all we want to do is recruit sprinters/basketball players to be our wings and strikers so we can run and punt to them. Where did I indicate that I want 11 Lebron James on the USMNT? Plus, who in the USMNT hierarchy who really matters and makes decisions is going to suggest we move to archaic tactics and only capitalize on our general athleticism? Come on, man.

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It does help that Jurgen was one part of the youth revolution in Germany, but that was a part of a 100 million Euro effort on Germany's part to make sure that they were getting the most out of their young players.

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You think that I thought that hiring Jurgen = winning the World Cup? That is just scratching the surface of the iceberg, but you seem very pessimistic about our current direction we want to go in, and frankly, I think that is incorrect.

We are doing the right things to get slowly but surely get better. Obviously, we will have permanent disadvantages such as not every boy dribbling a soccer ball as soon as they can walk, not being in the European coaching network, having a domestic league that does not get to play the giants of the club world (and consequently no UEFA Champions League), and more, but US is making leaps and bounds to do everything to get better.

The ground to make up to the superpowers is gigantic and it is probably impossible to ever be as good as the best team in the world, but that is necessary. We just need to keep improving and eventually we will be good enough. You do not have to have the best team in the world to win the World Cup. We will just have to be damned good, and we can get there one day.

Just so everyone knows, I'm going to bump the shite out of this thread 40 years from now when we win one.

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What did Jurgen himself say in the ESPN studio after we lost to Ghana?

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A soundbite from four years ago.

I am sure we have followed that plan to the T.

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These to me seem like insurmountable disadvantages, namely not being plugged in the European coaching network from a young age.

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We are starting to send more kids to Europe. Also, more European coaches are going to come to the States. International superstars are coming here in their twilight. Ten years ago, could you have imagining Henry or Becks finishing their illustrious careers in the States (yeah, I know Becks was at PSG for a little as well). A lot of people want to live here, have their kids educated at American universities (see Pep), etc. I think being high up on the USMNT ladder could be a potentially prestigious job.

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What? When was the last time the two weren't synonymous? Argentina in 1978? In general, yes, you need to be the best team in the world to win the World Cup.

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At the same time, you just need a very quality team and hope you can win that one game. Portugal was penalty kicks away from beating Spain in Euro 2012 and the Netherlands were only four minutes away from getting to PK's. Hell, the US beat Spain. In a game or two, anything can happen. We just need to get into their stratosphere, and I think that is reasonable within a couple player generations.

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Let me ask all of you who are more optimistic about our chances. Why has Japan, a country without our athletic prowess, done so well in developing top level players, while we have struggled, given that both nations started to take the game seriously at the same time?

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Part of it is simply just randomness. Both nations have taken seriously for what, like 20 years? That is a small enough sample size to not really prove too much. Maybe Japan has started trying to groom technical players before us. Maybe they were their kids off to Italy, Holland, and Spain to learn. Japan has had Kagawa, Honda, and a few others, but let's not act like Donovan and Bradley do not compare favorably to most of Japan's players.

I have seen you post this example like 50 times, but I do not think it shows that we have failed in the slightest compared to Japan because they have developed a couple world class players.

The United States have the resources to be very good. Very few countries have that opportunity. Africa - virtually no chance. Asia (excluding Japan and South Korea) - virtually no chance. The United States has incredible resources, wealth, and attractions to have great potential. There are no doubt setbacks, but most nations have some form of issues (except for Germany and maybe Spain and Italy).

It is a very uphill battle, but not an impossible one. For Christ's sake, England has won a World Cup. It is the very country many people love to deride for their soccer misfortunes. Of course, the game was wildly different 48 years ago. (Although, I think being one of the top 10 footballing nations and being a World Cup winner is quite admirable). You do not have be part of soccer's yacht club where you are loaded with technical players to the gills to win a World Cup. Crazy things can happen.

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I am sure we have followed that plan to the T.

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Yes, but at the same time it reveals how a lot of people think.

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We are starting to send more kids to Europe.

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We've been sending kids to Europe for a while. Frank Simek, Jovan Kirovski, John Thorrington, John O'Brien, Daniel Karbassiyoon, are some of the names I'm thinking of off the top of my head. Who do we have in Europe now? Joe Gyau, Lletget, and who else? I honestly don't know. Those kids at 'Pool. Emerson Hyndman. How many have a chance to break into the first team?

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Also, more European coaches are going to come to the States

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Let's hope.

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Ten years ago, could you have imagining Henry or Becks finishing their illustrious careers in the States (yeah, I know Becks was at PSG for a little as well).

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Yes. The MLS, like the NASL before it, is a retirement league.

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At the same time, you just need a very quality team and hope you can win that one game. Portugal was penalty kicks away from beating Spain in Euro 2012 and the Netherlands were only four minutes away from getting to PK's. Hell, the US beat Spain. In a game or two, anything can happen. We just need to get into their stratosphere, and I think that is reasonable within a couple player generations.

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Portugal and the Netherlands weren't just "quality teams." They were filled with excellent players, and Portugal has a once in a life time player in Ronaldo, while the Netherlands in 2010 had RvP, Sneijder, and Robben among others all near their peak. Those were amazing teams. It's not like they are Greece from 2004.

So again, let me ask you, when was the last time the WC winning team and the best team in the world weren't synonymous?

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Part of it is simply just randomness. Both nations have taken seriously for what, like 20 years? That is a small enough sample size to not really prove too much. Maybe Japan has started trying to groom technical players before us. Maybe they were their kids off to Italy, Holland, and Spain to learn. Japan has had Kagawa, Honda, and a few others, but let's not act like Donovan and Bradley do not compare favorably to most of Japan's players.

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What kind of players were we trying to groom if not for technical players? South Korea, Australia, and Japan have all had players have big roles on title winning teams. How is it that the U.S. has avoided this, considering all those other nations started taking the game seriously at the same time?

When was Donovan one of the most important players in a Bundesliga winning team, like Kagawa? When did Bradley become the most important creative hub for fricking AC Milan, like Honda is supposed to be? Donovan and Bradley's careers don't match up, if we are being objective and honest. You might watch more of the Americans, but on a technical level we just aren't there. And Donovan and Bradley are two of our best ever players in terms of technique. Maybe they don't get the chances they deserve. I don't know.

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I have seen you post this example like 50 times, but I do not think it shows that we have failed in the slightest compared to Japan because they have developed a couple world class players.

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How have we not failed? Japan's top tier league was organized in 1993. In twenty years the progress they've made is tremendous. How is this not disconcerting to anyone? You act like developing a couple of world class players in that time frame isn't extremely impressive.

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The United States have the resources to be very good.

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Of course we do.

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Africa - virtually no chance.

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This is entirely dependent on economic liberalization. Ghana stands a good chance. Since many people predict that this is the next area which will receive major investment, I wouldn't discount them. Nigeria has the population to be a major power, and already produces good players. If the North African countries liberalized, they also could stand a chance, not to mention that most of their squads are trained in France, which has one of the best youth systems in the world.

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Asia (excluding Japan and South Korea) - virtually no chance.

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China and India could easily be powers, but they have plenty of problems. Again, all this depends on economic liberalization, and finding stability after that. It's a hard thing to predict, but two of the world's biggest economies is a good bet.

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There are no doubt setbacks, but most nations have some form of issues (except for Germany and maybe Spain and Italy).

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In terms of producing youth, there are around nine nations (France, England or the UK as a whole, Belgium recently, Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Italy, Brazil, Argentina, and you could argue Russia) which produce that quality consistently. We are not one of those ten. As more countries find stability, you'll see teams like Colombia and Balkan nations producing players. So I disagree with this notion.

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You do not have be part of soccer's yacht club where you are loaded with technical players to the gills to win a World Cup.

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Yes you do. In this version of the game, where possession and technique are valued over pace and power, you absolutely need to be loaded to the brim with technical players.

Look, I'd love to be wrong. I'm more than happy to be wrong. I'm not so invested in my own opinions that I won't concede if I'm mistaken. I just don't think with the way the world is going that we will ever win a WC. I mean, there have only been twelve nations that have gotten to the final game. Twelve nations. We are talking about extremely small probabilities.

Agree with most of what you're saying, but:

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Fact is - we likely will never be the most talented team, but he most talented team does not always win the World Cup. 

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It's true that the most talented team does not always win the World Cup, but you can argue that the World Cup winner is always one of the top 4-5 teams in terms of talent.

We aren't one of those teams, and won't be for the forseeable (two WC cycles) future.

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It's true that the most talented team does not always win the World Cup, but you can argue that the World Cup winner is always one of the top 4-5 teams in terms of talent.

We aren't one of those teams, and won't be for the forseeable (two WC cycles) future.

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I do agree with you there, but my point (likely not articulated at all) was that we don't have to become the best nation, we just have to become among them. And while players 15-100 of our pool are nowhere near Spains players 15-100, clearly our 1-11 is capable of beating their top 11 on any given day.

Couple that with there almost always being at least one surprise semifinal team most world cups, and there is always a chance we (or any of the many teams of our ranking) sneak in there in any given world cup.

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You think we've plateaued?

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Since the sport seems to work in generations, you could plateau easily, since upward progress for every nation is characterized by periods of plateau, where no progress seems to be made, because there might be a generation gap. I don't know enough about our next generation to make that determination. So no, I don't think we've plateaued, but I don't know enough to say one way or another. With the rise of academies, I think we are two WC cycles away from even having a chance of moving past our current ceiling, which is the knockout stages of the WC. This doesn't mean I think we will be bad in the interim. We should remain a top 25ish side for the foreseeable future.

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You act like we have no chance but in the same breath act as if India and China have a legitimate chance at becoming soccer powers

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Let's not quote me out of context. The poster was saying that there would be no Asian powers, other than Korea and Japan. India is more concerned with cricket, and China doesn't seem interested in the sport. But they have the characteristics to be regional powers.

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China doesn't seem interested in the sport.

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China is a football mad country. Their federation, however, is complicated. They´ll get to it.

So you think we're in a temporary plateau, then?

And yeah I could see China becoming a regional power. India not so much.

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So you think we're in a temporary plateau, then?

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A transitional plateau, yes. I hope to god the next generation is as good as you guys believe.

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And yeah I could see China becoming a regional power. India not so much.

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When I was in India, I only talked soccer with the locals. Cricket was the national sport, but soccer was the thing that connected all of us together. I talked to many kids who said they wanted to play soccer but there wasn't anywhere for them to go. All it takes is organization and commitment for any country to become decent.