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re: General NBA Links

Posted on 7/29/14 at 9:13 am to
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 7/29/14 at 9:13 am to
Also a piece on Superstar Hauls in light of the impending Love trade. SI breaks down the Melo, Howard, DWIll, Paul, and Harden trades.

Here's what Mahoney says about Paul:

quote:

The best-laid plans of the then-Hornets have all but perished. On paper, this was a promising return. New Orleans received a budding star in Gordon and a first-round pick, which had belonged to the Wolves and was unprotected. That could be the basis of a strong core, provided that the Hornets nailed the pick and found good use or good returns for the other veterans on the roster.


That framework broke down in two fundamental ways. First, after Gordon played just nine games in an injury-derailed 2011-12 season, the Hornets were forced to make a $58 million decision regarding his future. That was the price of the four-year offer sheet that the restricted free-agent shooting guard signed with the Suns, positioning the Hornets to either match or see a prized piece of Paul's return go for nothing. New Orleans matched, signing a disgruntled and oft-injured Gordon to one of the worst contracts in the league.
Second, Minnesota -- a team whose success would define the value of the first-rounder acquired -- fared well enough in the lockout-shortened season to make matters difficult for New Orleans. This was in part due to a glut of similar performance; notwithstanding the uniquely dreadful 7-59 Bobcats, the rest of the NBA's 10 worst teams all fell between 20 and 26 wins. On the high end were the Wolves, were 10th worst at 26-40. That was a much lower pick than anticipated, made worse by the fact that New Orleans selected the seldom-effective Austin Rivers. There's still time for Rivers to grow into a productive player, but his first two seasons have offered only a smattering of hope.

It's tempting, in retrospect, to allege that the Hornets may have been better off accepting the proposed three-team deal with the Lakers and Rockets that would have landed the Hornets Goran Dragic, Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Lamar Odom and a 2012 first-round pick (via New York). Had the NBA approved the trade, however, New Orleans would not have been bad enough to luck into the right to select No. 1 pick Anthony Davis in the following draft. Such is an important consideration in evaluating prospect-laden returns: Part of the package, it seems, is bottoming out quickly enough to land a potential star in subsequent drafts.


LINK
This post was edited on 7/29/14 at 9:14 am
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 7/29/14 at 10:05 am to
Two more from Nylon Calculus

First on shot selection

LINK




quote:

This graph is based on every shot taken by every player during the 2013-2014 season. The red line — showing the average FG% by distance — drops dramatically until you get to about three feet, and from there everything has about a 40% chance of being made. On average, a team that takes more of their shots within three feet of the basket will make a higher percentage of them and thus, have a more effective offense. But there is one rule in the NBA which adds a layer of complexity — the three-point line.

The blue line on the graph above shows the effective field goal percentage (eFG%) by distance. Since eFG% accounts for the extra point scored on a three-point basket, what we’re seeing is the average value of shots by distance, not just how likely they are to be made.




quote:

This balancing act between a single shot and the thousands of shots a team takes throughout a season can be difficult to see. On an individual possession, the understanding of shot selection hasn’t really changed in the last 50 years — who’s shooting and how open they are still define most of what makes a good or bad shot. But when we put all those shots together we can see that commitment to a process, and a certain team or player-specific definition of what makes a good shot can change everything.
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