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re: Warming Predictions vs. Real World
Posted on 2/20/14 at 1:41 pm to Y.A. Tittle
Posted on 2/20/14 at 1:41 pm to Y.A. Tittle
The problem with the current models is that they are not advanced enough to simulate the complex ocean/atmospheric dynamics and there is still a lot that we just don't know.
Coming from an engineering background I personally have serious reservations about our ability to model the earth and atmospheric system. With that being said, I think the most important question is how we address the problem of a finite fossil fuel reserve and pollution. Market solutions or government solutions?
Coming from an engineering background I personally have serious reservations about our ability to model the earth and atmospheric system. With that being said, I think the most important question is how we address the problem of a finite fossil fuel reserve and pollution. Market solutions or government solutions?
This post was edited on 2/20/14 at 6:27 pm
3
Posted on 2/20/14 at 1:51 pm to Dalymaple
quote:
The problem with the current models is that they are not advanced enough to simulate the complex ocean/atmospheric dynamics and there is still a lot that we just don't know.
the discussion of the issue should always begin with this disclaimer, rather than constantly referring to a consensus that's supposed to be authoritative
Posted on 2/20/14 at 2:04 pm to Dalymaple
quote:
Coming from an engineering background I personally have serious reservations about our ability to model the earth and atmospheric system.
Me too. I was one of 6 system modelers for a pipeline company and our job was to maintain a system model for 14,000 miles of pipe. I did that job for two years. Our modeling predictions were close but never perfect. Now compare a system of 14,000 miles of pipe to the earth. The earth (and solar system) is a muuuuuuuuuuuuuuch bigger task. And the bigger the task (compared to the amount of resources) requires bigger assumptions. To quote Benny Hill, "When you AssUMe you make an arse out of U and Me".
Posted on 2/20/14 at 2:19 pm to Dalymaple
quote:
The problem with the current models is that they are not advanced enough to simulate the complex ocean/atmospheric dynamics and there is still a lot that we just don't know.
Therein lies the problem, which is two-fold:
1. Climate is subject to far too many variables for man to even begin to calculate.
2. Because of those other variables, to blame man for any perceived rise/drop in global temps or change in climate of any kind is absolute idiocy.
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