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re: DoCho's Bowl Prediction Algorithm: Day 3
Posted on 12/24/13 at 11:33 am to DollaChoppa
Posted on 12/24/13 at 11:33 am to DollaChoppa
Did you run this algorithm during the season?
It seems bowl season would be a tough time to start an algorithm. Conference games at least a lot of the teams have common opponents. Bowl games are against out of conference teams, which seems like it will result in more error.
It seems bowl season would be a tough time to start an algorithm. Conference games at least a lot of the teams have common opponents. Bowl games are against out of conference teams, which seems like it will result in more error.
3
Posted on 12/24/13 at 11:38 am to bamafan425
Let's not forget this algorithm had Colorado St. as a double digit winner and they needed a horseshoe up their arse to cover.
Posted on 12/24/13 at 11:53 am to bamafan425
quote:
Did you run this algorithm during the season? It seems bowl season would be a tough time to start an algorithm. Conference games at least a lot of the teams have common opponents. Bowl games are against out of conference teams, which seems like it will result in more error.
I started running mine the week of October 12, and tracked the results of all 4 models.
LINK
You can view the results there and use that data to cherry pick various angles as it breaks down the results into a lot of cross tabs.
Unfortunately, since pretty much all bowl games are at neutral sites the home/away breakdowns won't do much good.
This post was edited on 12/24/13 at 11:54 am
Posted on 12/24/13 at 5:37 pm to bamafan425
quote:
It seems bowl season would be a tough time to start an algorithm. Conference games at least a lot of the teams have common opponents. Bowl games are against out of conference teams, which seems like it will result in more error.
I agree with all of this.
And those are the reasons why I am doing it
I was very rushed in finishing up my algorithm. There are lots of revisions I can make to it, but I still think it can be successful the way it is. It just may not be as great of a return as Id like
This post was edited on 12/24/13 at 5:38 pm
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