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re: BOIL has become predictable

Posted on 3/3/15 at 2:15 pm to
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10233 posts
Posted on 3/3/15 at 2:15 pm to
Monitoring the situation carefully.

"The major level that this market must break in order to achieve this suggested 2.20 would be 2.59, our current yearly low and a supportive level since 2012. Upside resistance levels exist around 2.80, 3.00, and the un-filled gap in-between 3.21 and 3.27."

To oversimplify, what they are talking about is to get to $2.20, which is the price point drop as a percentage of crude, and also where gas dropped before bouncing in 2012. During the summer, not winter.
This post was edited on 3/3/15 at 2:33 pm
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10233 posts
Posted on 3/4/15 at 8:17 am to
Short DGAZ. A long way to go, but I think I'll get out ok.
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2474 posts
Posted on 3/4/15 at 8:42 am to
$2 gas seems like it could be a reality this spring - in a lot of ways we are in a worse place than 2012, mild winter and high storage aside. There is massive infrastructure coming online in the next 6 months to move Marcellus gas south. A lot of the major production receipt points in the Marcellus are trading around $1.50 today. Henry hub basis could get crushed as a result. The only thing offering a floor is power producers, but they aren't really in the picture until the summer. Take with a grain of salt though, my timing has been close to 100% wrong with this entire trade the last 12 months.
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