re: BOIL has become predictable

Decent opportunity to exit your shorts today if you wanted to.

I'm reading $4.20 gas this winter, and that's based on another hard winter. Wider variations based on geography though. Someone finally has that figured out.

It really amazes me that to a large degree a lot of guys in this thread have their head around supply demand fundamentals and pricing better than the so called experts.

I went through the government's reports leading up to last winter and through last winter. They're just like the analysts, late to the party. Almost like college football rankings before October. They're always looking backwards.

I suppose it helps that some of you talk to guys at Henry Hub.

I appreciate everyone's insight.

On a macro level, and based on what I think could be deflationary statistics coming out, I'm searching for alternative investments. Outside of long term plays in gold and silver, the commodities market has really under performed. I'm guessing that can't last given what I think I'm seeing and general global unrest.

I've made more money this year in coffee, feeder cattle, live cattle and natural gas than any other place. The coffee bull trade was based on a chart, and historic lows. Feeder cattle and live cattle trades are seasonal, and I have a decent idea what beef producers are saying given where I live. The natural gas I've always dabbled in on a seasonal basis, but I learned so much on here it is now a full time endeavor.

If I look back over all the years I've been both conservative and occasionally tried to hit home runs, one theme always emerges on my successes. I've made money on the half dozen sectors I understand. You can even see that in my trading account. It's all based on industries I somewhat understand. I probably miss a ton of opportunity, and I do have broad market exposure in my tax favored accounts, but I've found I'm really a pretty simple guy who isn't that smart, and best to stick to what I know.