re: Is it possible for LSU to make the Sugar Bowl?

It is possible, but super unlikely. If I were handicapping the possibility of it happening, I would put it between 5 and 10% and that is only because we still have the uncertainty of future results. It will be much more clear after this weekend if LSU even has a 5% chance.

For the dozen or so people who don't know how it could happen, losses don't matter. BCS bowls are allowed to select any AQ team in the top 14 for their slot that isn't contractually spoken for. Generally speaking, the bowls pick the highest ranked BCS team they can, but they are not obligated to do so.

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At-Large Eligibility
If there are fewer than 10 automatic qualifiers, then the bowls will select at-large participants to fill the remaining berths. An at-large team is any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible and meets the following requirements:

A. Has won at least nine regular-season games, and

B. Is among the top 14 teams in the final BCS Standings.

No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections, unless two non-champions from the same conference are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings.

If fewer than 10 teams are eligible for selection, then the Bowls can select as an at-large team any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings, subject to the two-team limit noted above and also subject to the following: (1) If any conference has two or more teams in the top 14, then two of those teams must be selected, and (2) from the teams ranked 15-18, a bowl can select only a team from a conference that has fewer than two teams in the top 14.

If expansion of the pool to 18 teams does not result in 10 teams eligible for selection, then the pool shall be expanded by blocks of 4 teams until 10 eligible teams are available, subject to the two-teams-per-conference limit noted above and also subject to the following: (1) If any conference has two or more teams in the top 14, then two of those teams must be selected, and (2) from the teams ranked 15 or lower, a bowl can select only a team from a conference that has fewer than two teams in the top 14.

Relative to the two preceding paragraphs, all teams ranked in the top 14, other than those from conferences that already have had two teams selected, must be included in the bowl selections.

Note: In order to participate in a BCS Bowl game, a team (1) must be eligible for post-season play under the rules of the NCAA and, if it not an independent, under the rules of its conference, and (2) must not have imposed sanctions upon itself prohibiting participation in a post-season game for infractions of the rules of the NCAA or the rules of its conference.

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