re: CAPE Ratios: How much weight should we assign to them in choosing markets?

I agree with you on bubbles, but I think you were missing the larger point about what Grantham was doing. They are in the business of identifying bubbles, and the info that 33 of their 36 identified bubbles popped is thus not worthless, because it indicates that they do in fact know how to identify bubbles.

Everybody knows what happens to bubbles with perfect hindsight. And yeah, there's another issue about people knowing that they are in a bubble and buy anyway in an attempt to time things correctly, but given how many different P/E aberrations that Grantham identified, I don't think we need to get too technical about what the exact definition of a "bubble" is. Let's just say that GMO appears to be providing value by identifying which asset trends are about to revert back toward their averages.

Also, my apologies for my flippant rudeness. I need to stop being so unnecessarily combative with my posts all the time.