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Started By
Message
re: Tracking a bet-against the Astros & Marlins every game the rest of the way..
Posted on 5/10/13 at 5:51 pm to GABlueDog
Posted on 5/10/13 at 5:51 pm to GABlueDog
quote:
'm glad the Astros can at least help some people out with their putridness.
The only sport I bet heavy on is CFB. And the one strategy that rarely lets me down is finding the truly putrid teams and betting like hell against them.
0
Posted on 5/10/13 at 5:55 pm to GABlueDog
quote:
frick Bud Selig for forcing them into the AL West
yea, this is what really made them suck
Posted on 5/10/13 at 9:16 pm to TH03
Bump..
Added a spreadsheet in the OP for you fools to follow.
Added a spreadsheet in the OP for you fools to follow.
Posted on 5/10/13 at 9:19 pm to LSUAlum2001
Marlins could be a worthy venture as well.
Posted on 5/10/13 at 9:20 pm to bamafan425
quote:
Marlins could be a worthy venture as well.
True.. I'll add a 2nd worksheet to the linked spredsheet in the OP and total them up.
Posted on 5/10/13 at 9:52 pm to LSUAlum2001
Added the Marlins in a 2nd worksheet of the same spreadsheet.
YTD: $990
YTD: $990
Posted on 5/10/13 at 10:20 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
Added the Marlins in a 2nd worksheet of the same spreadsheet.
YTD: $990
Nice.
So far so good on the Astros trick. 50 bucks...eeeaaaasssssyyy money.
Posted on 5/10/13 at 11:24 pm to bobbyray21
quote:
If that extrapolates through the last 127 games (36-91) and the average bet is -165, you will finish +3160 if you goal is to win $100 each game.
Oddsmakers will adjust. Ogando was -200 tonight, Darvish is -245 Saturday,etc..
Eventually, if current form holds, you'll see Koufax, Bob Gibson 1968, Ron Guidry 1978, Clemens & Gooden 1986 prices of -300, or possibly heavy runline/moneyline mixes.
Right now, you can steal in some situations, with both fielding expansion-esque rosters, but if current form holds, it will not be just 97 mph ace type pitchers -250 to -200, but also the 3rd to 5th starter staff arms as massive chalk vs Hou and Mia, where you'll get stung just laying that blindly.
This post was edited on 5/11/13 at 12:04 am
Posted on 5/10/13 at 11:39 pm to TheRoarRestoredInBR
Houston has already played in 8 games where they were -200 or worse.
Miami has played 7.
If the % holds true for both teams and they finish around 50-112, the 40 or so losses would have to average at -220.
So far, in Houston's 10 wins, they averaged out to -145 dogs.
In Miami's 10 wins, they averaged out to -152 dogs.
Eta: Ogando was -210 tonight because he dominated the Stros in his previous matchup with them at the beginning of the season.
Darvish gets a big number because he's the ace of the Rangers.
Miami has played 7.
If the % holds true for both teams and they finish around 50-112, the 40 or so losses would have to average at -220.
So far, in Houston's 10 wins, they averaged out to -145 dogs.
In Miami's 10 wins, they averaged out to -152 dogs.
Eta: Ogando was -210 tonight because he dominated the Stros in his previous matchup with them at the beginning of the season.
Darvish gets a big number because he's the ace of the Rangers.
This post was edited on 5/10/13 at 11:48 pm
Posted on 5/10/13 at 11:54 pm to LSUAlum2001
MLB is a low volume wagering sport in contrast to NFL and NCAA Football. The wiseguys and sharps that dictate it's line movement and pricing are habitual dog bettors, thus lack of large public wagering to drive up chalk.
If MLB had the betting volume of past eras, the story would already be different in terms of pricing. Regardless, even if the marketplace miniscule, the current -145 to 165 prices will move to -2/1 and greater, should current form hold, and/or wagering against Hou and Mia as auto-fade/copper material increase in the marketplace.
Those short average prices for both teams win columns, suggests some possible decent oddsmaking for days when they are live dogs.
Both teams may well grind a nice lil' yearly profit as go-againsts, but the prices will rise if current form holds, or either hit the skids badly in being very uncompetitive daily.
If MLB had the betting volume of past eras, the story would already be different in terms of pricing. Regardless, even if the marketplace miniscule, the current -145 to 165 prices will move to -2/1 and greater, should current form hold, and/or wagering against Hou and Mia as auto-fade/copper material increase in the marketplace.
Those short average prices for both teams win columns, suggests some possible decent oddsmaking for days when they are live dogs.
Both teams may well grind a nice lil' yearly profit as go-againsts, but the prices will rise if current form holds, or either hit the skids badly in being very uncompetitive daily.
This post was edited on 5/11/13 at 12:00 am
Posted on 5/11/13 at 12:29 am to TheRoarRestoredInBR
quote:
The wiseguys and sharps that dictate it's line movement and pricing are habitual dog bettors
Totally. I think some gamblers convince themselves that they aren't clever unless they're betting the dog.
Posted on 5/11/13 at 12:34 am to bobbyray21
The best sports bettors in the world clean up on dogs in MLB. Too much variance to take -130's all the time.
Posted on 5/11/13 at 1:17 pm to VegasPro
The Marlins have gone 6-6 over their last 12 which is about -370 in that time span.
I'll just watch them for now.
I'll just watch them for now.
Posted on 5/11/13 at 10:04 pm to LSUAlum2001
Rangers get by with an 8-7 win.
LAD currently up 5-0 going into the 6th, but the Dodgers are a MASH unit right now.
Updated the spreadsheet for the Stros and waiting to update it for the Marlins. I will keep the OP updated with the running YTD $ totals.
LAD currently up 5-0 going into the 6th, but the Dodgers are a MASH unit right now.
Updated the spreadsheet for the Stros and waiting to update it for the Marlins. I will keep the OP updated with the running YTD $ totals.
This post was edited on 5/11/13 at 10:07 pm
Posted on 5/12/13 at 2:05 pm to LSUAlum2001
Rangers up 5-0 in the 3rd. They will be in the Astros bullpen by the 5th.
Looking good for 3 in a row.
Looking good for 3 in a row.
Posted on 5/12/13 at 2:38 pm to LSUAlum2001
Rangers cruising now up 8-1.
Looks like another W.
BTW, in 2003, the Detroit Tigers finished the season 43-119.
I grabbed the data from that year and here is what I have..
1. The average line that year was -180, and this included some big lines with one at -350.
2. The average line that year when Detroit won a game was approximately the same at -180, which include a win as that -350 dog.
So, if you bet $180 to win $100 all season against the Tigers, you would have finished the season with $4,160.
..and the Tigers won 5 of their final 6 games.
Heading into those last 6 games, you were up $4,960.
Looks like another W.
BTW, in 2003, the Detroit Tigers finished the season 43-119.
I grabbed the data from that year and here is what I have..
1. The average line that year was -180, and this included some big lines with one at -350.
2. The average line that year when Detroit won a game was approximately the same at -180, which include a win as that -350 dog.
So, if you bet $180 to win $100 all season against the Tigers, you would have finished the season with $4,160.
..and the Tigers won 5 of their final 6 games.
Heading into those last 6 games, you were up $4,960.
This post was edited on 5/12/13 at 2:39 pm
Posted on 5/12/13 at 7:59 pm to LSUAlum2001
Updated the spreadsheets.
YTD: +$1368 if you bet to win 100 against the Astros every game.
YTD: +$1049 if you bet to win 100 against the Marlins every game.
The Stros are a huge dog tomorrow @ Detroit who already mauled them this year in a 4 game stretch.
YTD: +$1368 if you bet to win 100 against the Astros every game.
YTD: +$1049 if you bet to win 100 against the Marlins every game.
The Stros are a huge dog tomorrow @ Detroit who already mauled them this year in a 4 game stretch.
This post was edited on 5/12/13 at 8:02 pm
Posted on 5/12/13 at 9:19 pm to LSUAlum2001
Please keep tracking. May join you in a week or so
Posted on 5/12/13 at 9:39 pm to BeYou
I will.
It might not be every day, but it will only take 5 minutes to update a week of games.
It might not be every day, but it will only take 5 minutes to update a week of games.
Posted on 5/13/13 at 8:46 am to LSUAlum2001
Just now seeing this thread. I have done this since the beginning of the season. I've bet against the Astros for every game they have played in 2013 and I began betting against the Marlins about 10 games in. I'm up a little over $1500. A few things
1. I bet to win different increments i.e. $100, $150, $250 etc. especially after the Astros/Marlins win a game or two in a row plus you have a favorable comparison between the money line and run line
2. Example of favorable comparison. Opponents ML is -220 and RL is -140. I bet more here and sometimes take the run line as opposed to a game where ML is -170 and RL is +110. I'll take ML in this instance but bet to win a smaller increment i.e. $50 or $75. I've lost 2 games out of about 11 or so where the run line came into effect (latest one was the 8-7 victory by the Rangers when Astros somehow scored 3 in the 9th)
3. Bet as soon as the lines are available to you (early morning usually) as the juice will change and give you a worse line. The spreadsheets given earlier in the thread were the opening lines as I have had to lay a lot more points than what was given
4. I bet higher when either team is on the road and has won their previous road game
5. Profit
1. I bet to win different increments i.e. $100, $150, $250 etc. especially after the Astros/Marlins win a game or two in a row plus you have a favorable comparison between the money line and run line
2. Example of favorable comparison. Opponents ML is -220 and RL is -140. I bet more here and sometimes take the run line as opposed to a game where ML is -170 and RL is +110. I'll take ML in this instance but bet to win a smaller increment i.e. $50 or $75. I've lost 2 games out of about 11 or so where the run line came into effect (latest one was the 8-7 victory by the Rangers when Astros somehow scored 3 in the 9th)
3. Bet as soon as the lines are available to you (early morning usually) as the juice will change and give you a worse line. The spreadsheets given earlier in the thread were the opening lines as I have had to lay a lot more points than what was given
4. I bet higher when either team is on the road and has won their previous road game
5. Profit
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