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How Important Are Assists?
Posted on 4/10/13 at 9:44 am
Posted on 4/10/13 at 9:44 am
Post from Ziller riffing on Zach Lowe's Grantland piece from yesterday (thread is down the page).
He looks into the relationship between team AST Rate (The percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while he was on the floor. AST / (TmFGM - FGM)) and EFG% (Measures field goal percentage adjusting for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal.= ((FGM + (0.5 * 3PM)) / FGA)
LINK
He looks into the relationship between team AST Rate (The percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while he was on the floor. AST / (TmFGM - FGM)) and EFG% (Measures field goal percentage adjusting for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal.= ((FGM + (0.5 * 3PM)) / FGA)
LINK
quote:
The problem with assists is that it's basically impossible to find evidence in any data that they help teams score more efficiently. In other words, the relationship between tallying more assists and shooting better as a team never seems to show up in the data.
quote:
the Heat are easily No. 1 in shooting ... and in the bottom half in assist percentage. The Thunder are No. 3 in shooting ... and No. 27 in assist percentage. The Knicks by far get the lowest percentage of field goals via assist, yet land in the top ten in shooting percentage. There are explanations in these cases. Miami, Oklahoma City and New York each have superlative individual scorers, and two of them (the Heat and Knicks) have one of their weaker starters at point guard. But it doesn't change the data: low assist rates simply don't matter for these teams.
quote:
On the other side of the map, the Nos. 2 and 4 teams in assist percentage (the Bulls and Timberwolves) are Nos. 29 and 28 in shooting, respectively. Put another way, only one team gets more of its made shots off of assists than Chicago ... but 28 teams shoot more efficiently. That throws our belief that assists, and by extension passing, are vital to offensive performance right back in our faces.
3
Posted on 4/10/13 at 10:00 am to corndeaux
Of course assists are not a primary determining factor of a team's shooting ability. The problem is that their analysis doesn't really provide a model baseline. So, Chicago shoots poorly but gets a lot of assists. The problem is that they cannot in any way disprove that Chicago would shoot even worse without those assists.
I honestly think drawing any conclusions from that piece is kind of dumb. They basically said, we'd like to discredit the assist, but the only trend shows modest support for assists increasing efficiency. Were they really expecting anything like a 1:1 ratio in such a complex relationship?
I honestly think drawing any conclusions from that piece is kind of dumb. They basically said, we'd like to discredit the assist, but the only trend shows modest support for assists increasing efficiency. Were they really expecting anything like a 1:1 ratio in such a complex relationship?
Posted on 4/10/13 at 10:02 am to Jester
quote:
There actually is a small positive relationship between effective field goal and assist percentage.
quote:
on an individual level there is a relationship between assists and conversion. Studies have indicated that players shoot roughly ten percent better on shots that are assisted than ones that are not.
This post was edited on 4/10/13 at 10:05 am
Posted on 4/10/13 at 10:20 am to corndeaux
I'm not sure this "disproves" assists as much as talks up how certain players, like LeBron, Wade, Durant, Westbrook, etc., can create their own shots.
Posted on 4/10/13 at 10:30 am to Jester
the piece isn't about disproving the value of assists and I am not taking it as such..He points out a few times how weird it is that it helps individually but not on a team level.
If anything its a conversation starter for how to build a team. To me, the question isnt are assists valuable, but do you need a high assist rate to build a successful offense?
Its more of the positional revolution idea he and Shoals used to talk about.
lm going to dig up the Z graph stuff once the season is done and see if we can have some fun with that
If anything its a conversation starter for how to build a team. To me, the question isnt are assists valuable, but do you need a high assist rate to build a successful offense?
Its more of the positional revolution idea he and Shoals used to talk about.
lm going to dig up the Z graph stuff once the season is done and see if we can have some fun with that
This post was edited on 4/10/13 at 10:34 am
Posted on 4/10/13 at 10:38 am to corndeaux
(no message)
Posted on 4/10/13 at 2:16 pm to corndeaux
Assists are a slice of a ball movement that relates to scoring. Their appearance in box scores and the 'air' of teamwork inflates the appearance of their importance.
No ball movement means you likely lose. No field scoring means you likely lose. Assists are incidental, which is why it is hard to tease out a clear signal from them.
No ball movement means you likely lose. No field scoring means you likely lose. Assists are incidental, which is why it is hard to tease out a clear signal from them.
Posted on 4/10/13 at 6:54 pm to 42
quote:
Assists are a slice of a ball movement that relates to scoring. Their appearance in box scores and the 'air' of teamwork inflates the appearance of their importance.
No ball movement means you likely lose. No field scoring means you likely lose. Assists are incidental, which is why it is hard to tease out a clear signal from them.
Great points and the one in bold was what I was getting at with the positional revolution stuff. Doesn't matter how you get from A to B as long as you get there.
Posted on 4/10/13 at 6:56 pm to 42
quote:
Assists are a slice of a ball movement that relates to scoring. Their appearance in box scores and the 'air' of teamwork inflates the appearance of their importance.
No ball movement means you likely lose. No field scoring means you likely lose. Assists are incidental, which is why it is hard to tease out a clear signal from them.
Great points and the one in bold was what I was getting at with the positional revolution stuff. Doesn't matter how you get from A to B as long as you get there.
Posted on 4/11/13 at 8:45 am to corndeaux
Just saw this tweet, but Boston pre Rondo injury was 22nd pp100possessions. After injury, 21.
Haven't looked to see if the assist rate is the same, but interesting nonetheless
Haven't looked to see if the assist rate is the same, but interesting nonetheless
Posted on 4/11/13 at 9:37 am to corndeaux
What about rebounding? Is there a correlation of more rebounds means more pts? Im sure there is but would like to see.
This post was edited on 4/11/13 at 9:37 am
Posted on 4/11/13 at 11:24 am to Tayday
Not all rebounds are equally effective.
Offensive rebounds give a chance to shoot while denying the defense a chance to shoot.
Defensive rebounds definitely deny the former offense a chance to shoot while ging the former defense a chance to shoot.
Clearly, other factors affect shot attempts, like steals, etc. Also, a defensive rebound gives a chance for the new defense to steal, block, and more.
At its most basic, offensive rebound lengthens a possession while defensive rebounds end one and start another.
Offensive rebounds give a chance to shoot while denying the defense a chance to shoot.
Defensive rebounds definitely deny the former offense a chance to shoot while ging the former defense a chance to shoot.
Clearly, other factors affect shot attempts, like steals, etc. Also, a defensive rebound gives a chance for the new defense to steal, block, and more.
At its most basic, offensive rebound lengthens a possession while defensive rebounds end one and start another.
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