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SmackoverHawg 
Arkansas Fan
Member since Oct 2011
5859 posts
| re: I'm rich and I hoard wealth (Posted on 3/1/13 at 5:55 pm to NoHoTiger)
quote:
could never be an MD, but will be a PhD within the year. Hope I don't suffer the same fate.
quote:
there will be an ongoing need for bartenders
and barbers...I guess if that whole PhD thing doesn't work out, I could go to beauty school.
Marry well! I did. 
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Powerman 
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
115748 posts
| re: I'm rich and I hoard wealth (Posted on 3/1/13 at 5:57 pm to SmackoverHawg)
quote:
What's your qualifications P-man?
Not being a douchebag obsessed with meaningless credentials?
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NoHoTiger
LSU Fan
just left of center
Member since Nov 2006
24921 posts
| re: I'm rich and I hoard wealth (Posted on 3/1/13 at 5:58 pm to SmackoverHawg)
quote:
Marry well!
I'm too old to get married...so I'll just have to figure it out on my own. Worked for me so far.
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onmymedicalgrind
LSU Fan
Atlanta
Member since Dec 2012
1340 posts
| re: I'm rich and I hoard wealth (Posted on 3/1/13 at 6:07 pm to Powerman)
You're still at it??
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onmymedicalgrind
LSU Fan
Atlanta
Member since Dec 2012
1340 posts
| re: I'm rich and I hoard wealth (Posted on 3/1/13 at 6:11 pm to Powerman)
And I'm sorry to hear about your mom's misdiagnoses. But alot of diseases don't have simple, "objective" data that defines them. There is alot of intersection between the features of many disorders, and that makes diagnosing very difficult sometimes. If there was a simple, objective constellation of features, I'd venture out and say your mother would be diagnosed by now. But thats just not how it goes sometimes, and its not because doctors are inept. Its because we just don't know about many disease processes and we are still actively researching these areas. And Watson would make no difference as far as diagnosing in this instance because, like I said, if the data isn't out there and humans don't know, than Watson won't know.
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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
115748 posts
| re: I'm rich and I hoard wealth (Posted on 3/1/13 at 6:49 pm to onmymedicalgrind)
But a lot of times the data is out there. Humans can't keep up with it. Watson can. And it can produce an objective answer in an instant no matter how complicated the diagnosis seems to you.
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onmymedicalgrind
LSU Fan
Atlanta
Member since Dec 2012
1340 posts
| re: I'm rich and I hoard wealth (Posted on 3/1/13 at 6:57 pm to Powerman)
quote:
But a lot of times the data is out there. Humans can't keep up with it. Watson can. And it can produce an objective answer in an instant no matter how complicated the diagnosis seems to you.
Thats just not true. There isn't a "clincher" for many diagnoses, especially the more rare, often overlooked ones. There's no blood test, no assay, no specific characteristic radiographic finding, etc, and it can appear in almost every way like another disorder.
If (when) we reach a day where we understood so much, mechanistically and physiologically, about all the diseases to the point we can create discrete, objective diagnostic criteria for them, than yes, Watson would probably replace most doctors. But that day is still far in the future, definitely more than 20-30 years.
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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
40219 posts
| re: I'm rich and I hoard wealth (Posted on 3/1/13 at 6:59 pm to Powerman)
quote:
But a lot of times the data is out there. Humans can't keep up with it.
Well, there is this thingy out there . . . it maintains far more information than Watson . . . and in some cases it can even be accessed by humans.
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onmymedicalgrind
LSU Fan
Atlanta
Member since Dec 2012
1340 posts
| re: I'm rich and I hoard wealth (Posted on 3/1/13 at 7:04 pm to NC_Tigah)
Wait, its not just porn anymore?
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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
40219 posts
| re: I'm rich and I hoard wealth (Posted on 3/1/13 at 7:08 pm to onmymedicalgrind)
quote:
Wait, its not just porn anymore?
See? and we didn't even need Watson to figure it out. 
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Walking the Earth
Member since Feb 2013
571 posts
 Online
| re: I'm rich and I hoard wealth (Posted on 3/1/13 at 8:52 pm to onmymedicalgrind)
quote:
Thats just not true. There isn't a "clincher" for many diagnoses, especially the more rare, often overlooked ones. There's no blood test, no assay, no specific characteristic radiographic finding, etc, and it can appear in almost every way like another disorder.
If (when) we reach a day where we understood so much, mechanistically and physiologically, about all the diseases to the point we can create discrete, objective diagnostic criteria for them, than yes, Watson would probably replace most doctors. But that day is still far in the future, definitely more than 20-30 years.
I think the main thing that he's overlooking, or just flat our ignoring, is that if it were only a matter of raw computational power and/or data storage then Watson would be replacing doctors right now. But it isn't simply a matter of patient presenting A, B & C so obviously the diagnosis is D.
And even if we get to that point in the far off future, a whole new set of issues that have nothing to do with technology have to be solved first. Is IBM going to accept the liability issues? Why would they want to do that, especially if one Watson v7.0 can handle the needs of an entire hospital or collective of hospitals? How does the cost-benefit work in their favor?
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MrCarton 
Alabama Fan
Nashville
Member since Dec 2009
1643 posts
| re: I'm rich and I hoard wealth (Posted on 3/1/13 at 8:54 pm to onmymedicalgrind)
quote:
If (when) we reach a day where we understood so much, mechanistically and physiologically, about all the diseases to the point we can create discrete, objective diagnostic criteria for them, than yes, Watson would probably replace most doctors. But that day is still far in the future, definitely more than 20-30 years.
I still think it will merely shift how we think of doctors. "Doctor" might become a term for a team of scientists and technicians.
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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
115748 posts
| re: I'm rich and I hoard wealth (Posted on 3/1/13 at 9:18 pm to onmymedicalgrind)
quote:
Thats just not true. There isn't a "clincher" for many diagnoses, especially the more rare, often overlooked ones. There's no blood test, no assay, no specific characteristic radiographic finding, etc, and it can appear in almost every way like another disorder.
I think you're missing the point here
The machine will pick up on rare and uncommon things if the data is there
A human won't because a human isn't up to date with the medical literature and couldn't possibly make a calculus on all of the information. We simply do not have the brain capacity to do this.
And you're right that there isn't always a clincher, but the machine can provide a measurable level of confidence with the answer. Which is better than what you can say about doctors who might just randomly spit out one of 3 possible answers that machine provides on a whim. With no justification of why they chose that particular answer.
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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
115748 posts
| re: I'm rich and I hoard wealth (Posted on 3/1/13 at 9:22 pm to MrCarton)
quote:
I still think it will merely shift how we think of doctors. "Doctor" might become a term for a team of scientists and technicians.
Right. Someone that will require a much lower level of skill than doctors do currently. No one is going to want to pay 300K a year or more for someone to be a fricking liaison.
The machine will be the intellectual backbone of all decision making. Doctors will provide a sanity check. As a measure of prudence doctors will be looked at as a liability if they try to override the machine with their "instinct" IMO.
It's a numbers game. You trust the AI over the inferior human 100 times out of 100 and you get much better results in aggregate (we're assuming this to be a few years into the future, I'm not talking about right now)
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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
115748 posts
| re: I'm rich and I hoard wealth (Posted on 3/1/13 at 9:26 pm to NC_Tigah)
quote:
Well, there is this thingy out there . . . it maintains far more information than Watson . . . and in some cases it can even be accessed by humans.
Another dumb frick doctor that doesn't get it.
You simply do not have enough available time to be 100% up to date on the medical literature in your field.
The computer does. And it can learn more about your field in 2 seconds than you learned in your entire life.
The sum total of medical literature available to mankind is doubling every few years. There isn't any way for humans to keep up with it. The analysis is better suited for machines.
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onmymedicalgrind
LSU Fan
Atlanta
Member since Dec 2012
1340 posts
| re: I'm rich and I hoard wealth (Posted on 3/1/13 at 9:26 pm to Powerman)
quote:
I think you're missing the point here
No, not really. 60+ pages and you still don't get it.
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The machine will pick up on rare and uncommon things if the data is there
What is this "data" you speak of? Again, if humans don't know what this "data" is, neither will Watson. There are so many idiopathic diseases and we have no clue at this point how to diagnose alot of these based on objective measures (lab data, radiographs, etc). You just don't get it. You cant view every profession through the same lens that you view your own, tech-heavy one. Ethnocentric, much
ETA: and what if the "data" isn't there?
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With no justification of why they chose that particular answer.
Yea, you really don't like doctors, that obvious. So 4 years in med school, 4+ years in residency training, and you think they just randomly guess with no justification whatsoever? 
This post was edited on 3/1 at 9:28 pm
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MrCarton
Alabama Fan
Nashville
Member since Dec 2009
1643 posts
| re: I'm rich and I hoard wealth (Posted on 3/1/13 at 9:27 pm to Powerman)
quote:
Right. Someone that will require a much lower level of skill than doctors do currently. No one is going to want to pay 300K a year or more for someone to be a fricking liaison.
I think the valued skills will be different, not lower.
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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
115748 posts
| re: I'm rich and I hoard wealth (Posted on 3/1/13 at 9:32 pm to onmymedicalgrind)
quote:
gain, if humans don't know what this "data" is, neither will Watson.
You must be the dumbest fricking person of all time
It's not a matter of no human ever having seen the data. It's a matter of practice. As a practicing doctor, there is a 0% chance of you being 100% up to date on all of the available medical literature in your field. A machine would be up to date and be able to provide a diagnosis and recommend treatment while you are completely dumbfounded and have no fricking clue what is going on and are just making arbitrary guesses.
Will the computer be right 100% of the time? No. But in these instances it will be much much more reliable than a human.
Mother of Christ you people are fricking stupid.
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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
115748 posts
| re: I'm rich and I hoard wealth (Posted on 3/1/13 at 9:34 pm to onmymedicalgrind)
quote:
Yea, you really don't like doctors, that obvious. So 4 years in med school, 4+ years in residency training, and you think they just randomly guess with no justification whatsoever?
Oh...so I guess you guys were joking when you said that people practice based on "intuition" and "instinct" which are essentially both key words for arbitrary random bull shite that is done on a fricking whim.
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MrCarton
Alabama Fan
Nashville
Member since Dec 2009
1643 posts
| re: I'm rich and I hoard wealth (Posted on 3/1/13 at 9:37 pm to onmymedicalgrind)
quote:
So 4 years in med school, 4+ years in residency training, and you think they just randomly guess with no justification whatsoever?
I have asked 5 different docs about the same case, gotten five different answers. The issue is that these docs do not have the capability of coordinating treatment options and creating scientifically backed conclusions. Publications cannot keep up with results and fellowships do not create a hive mind mentality.
The internet has done a lot for medicine as a reference and research tool, but results analysis rely on input. In a voluntary disclosure system, the weakness is the doctors willingness or ability (time crunch) to input the data in an unbiased manner.
Will technology solve these issues? Not completely. But improved bio sensing and automated data reporting will go a long way for consistency.
JMO
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