re: Gold...why is it down?

It doesn't necessarily need to shrink the economy, but it will put downward pressure on it, and investment will certainly shift from gold to bonds.

As I argued in the other thread, inflation plays the role of the catalyst--as in until consumer inflation actually shows up, interest rates never have to rise.

Nobody knows how long it's going to take for inflation to show up though, at least with any significant force to it--especially if there are further recessions in Europe and/or China. It could take a while.