re: Chance of Tourney? NIT?

quote:

---

i dont think that will be enough to get us in the tourny this year because of the sec. However, I dont see how people have us at below 50 % for the nit.

---

That's great.

quote:

---

Conference is terrible. They'll be lucky to get 5 teams in

---

And that's great.

I found my post from last year.

I was off on the .500 part. It's "a game above .500", and it's conference record that mattered, not overall.

quote:

---

Over the last 10 years:

The SEC has failed to get AT LEAST 5 teams in twice (2010, 2009)

Over the last 10 years:

9-7 has been lower than 5th place once (6th place, 2006... you may recall, the SEC had two Final Four teams that year.) Some seasons, 9-7 can get you third, but 5th place is usually where it puts you.

Over the last 10 years:

71 of the 80 SEC tournament semi-finalists made the NCAAs. Of the nine that didn't make it, all but three had records below 9-7. The interesting thing is that those three semifinalists (with records 9-7 or better) came in the last three seasons: Alabama @ 12-4 last year, State at 9-7 in 2010, and Auburn @ 10-6 in 2009.

---

And that was before last year's tournament.

Last season, the SEC only got four teams in (and Tennessee was the "odd man out" at 10-6 conference, 18-13 overall.) 3 of the 4 SEC tournament semifinalists made it to the NCAAs. (9-7 Alabama made it over 8-8 semifinalist Ole Miss.) I'm pretty sure if Tennessee would have made the semis, they would have gone to the tourney.

So, if LSU finishes above .500 in conference, and makes it to the semis of the tournament, they have a pretty good shot to make the NCAAs.

I think both of those are possible, though they'll have to hold home court and steal one on the road to get above .500.

ESPN Has our RPI around 99. Assuming we win today (and if not, we have major problems) and go 3 and 3 down the stretch. That puts us at 18-11 (9-9). Win one in the SEC Tournament and we are 19-12 and probably in the NIT.

If we win out and finish 21-8 we would probably be on the bubble. Assuming we win one at the SEC Tournament we finish 22-9 and will have won 9 of 10 with top 50 wins against: Mizzou (twice); Ole Miss (assuming Kennedy doesn't implode) and then maybe Alabama. Also the four point loss at Marquette is looking better. Bad Losses: South Carolina and Auburn. That is a bubble resume.

Given all that my prediction is that we finish 20-12 and make the NIT.

Our chances are improving with each game down the stretch. We're getting better as a team with every game. How important is a strong finish and what are our odds now ? NCAA ? Still slim to none unless we win out but NIT? 80-90%

LSU will be a high seed in the NIT and hopefully get a home game. Unless thee administration wants to be a bitch again this season.

Here's how we make the tourney;

1. Get 20 wins
2. Don't get blown out in the losses
3. Win at least two in the SEC tourney
4. Automatic Bid - Win the SEC tourney

Record now 15-8 (6-6) with 6 regular season remaining and then the SEC tourney.

That's my story & I'm sticking to it!

quote:

---

LSU didn't lose to Auburn and South Carolina.

---

gonna kill us for the tourny. We will probably make the NIT as a high seed

Those Auburn and Arkansas losses suck so much now. LSU would be 8-4 and looking to finish 2nd in the SEC. Oy vey.

You're so cool

Why am I so cool? Because I presented an opinion then backed it up with hard facts?