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Message
Billionaires predicting financial ruin in U.S.?
Posted on 2/15/13 at 5:06 pm
Posted on 2/15/13 at 5:06 pm
LINK
Are these people quacks?
quote:
In the latest filing for Buffett’s holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has been drastically reducing his exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing habits. Berkshire sold roughly 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson, and reduced his overall stake in “consumer product stocks” by 21%. Berkshire Hathaway also sold its entire stake in California-based computer parts supplier Intel.
With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, Buffett’s apparent lack of faith in these companies’ future prospects is worrisome.
Unfortunately Buffett isn’t alone.
Fellow billionaire John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks too. During the second quarter of the year, Paulson’s hedge fund, Paulson & Co., dumped 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase. The fund also dumped its entire position in discount retailer Family Dollar and consumer-goods maker Sara Lee.
quote:
Before you dismiss the possibility of a 90% drop in the stock market as unrealistic, consider Wiedemer’s credentials.
In 2006, Wiedemer and a team of economists accurately predicted the collapse of the U.S. housing market, equity markets, and consumer spending that almost sank the United States. They published their research in the book America’s Bubble Economy.
Are these people quacks?
Posted on 2/15/13 at 5:16 pm to Powerman
FWIW, Buffett's Berkshire & 3G just did a deal this week to buy Heinz for $28 billion, so it's not like he's really getting out of consumer stocks.
Posted on 2/15/13 at 5:34 pm to Doc Fenton
Yeah.
This article was from the 6th FWIW
This huge buyout sort of makes the narrative seem silly
Maybe he was just dumping other shite to posture himself for the buyout
Even Buffet has to sell a few things to buy something that big
This article was from the 6th FWIW
This huge buyout sort of makes the narrative seem silly
Maybe he was just dumping other shite to posture himself for the buyout
Even Buffet has to sell a few things to buy something that big
Posted on 2/15/13 at 6:13 pm to Powerman
quote:
Fellow billionaire John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown
His fund wasn't doing very well up until then, and hasn't since either.
Posted on 2/15/13 at 6:16 pm to Powerman
The story is obviously overblown, but I will say this: If even moderate inflation begins to take hold (and with housing and asset prices rallying so much lately, you would think that this would have to occur at some point), such as somewhere in the 3-4% annualized CPI growth range, then the Fed will be forced to finally lift interest rates, and once that begins, a long coordinated line of different mechanisms will begin to shift into place that will change the entire macroeconomic picture.
This might cause a recession similar to 1982, or even worse than 1982, marked by higher interest rates and slumping stocks. I keep hoping for this correction to come sooner rather than later, but I've been waiting on this for years now, and it never seems to come. It's probably still a long way off.
I think the idea in the story is that somehow bond investors will cause inflation all by themselves, but like the guy in the Fortune article from the other thread argued, nobody is going to refuse to keep accepting dollars so long as purchasing power holds firm. Consumer price inflation will have to show up first, and only then we will have to worry about the bond investors sparking a panic.
This might cause a recession similar to 1982, or even worse than 1982, marked by higher interest rates and slumping stocks. I keep hoping for this correction to come sooner rather than later, but I've been waiting on this for years now, and it never seems to come. It's probably still a long way off.
I think the idea in the story is that somehow bond investors will cause inflation all by themselves, but like the guy in the Fortune article from the other thread argued, nobody is going to refuse to keep accepting dollars so long as purchasing power holds firm. Consumer price inflation will have to show up first, and only then we will have to worry about the bond investors sparking a panic.
Posted on 2/15/13 at 8:28 pm to Powerman
Dude, you seriously fell for this? This is a quack trying to sell a book and he disguises it as a legit article...I see links to this on a number of sites.
Posted on 2/16/13 at 6:57 am to cwill
quote:
Dude, you seriously fell for this? This is a quack trying to sell a book and he disguises it as a legit article...I see links to this on a number of sites.
I had a feeling it might be something along those lines since they mention some video for you to watch
Just wanted to see if there was any substance at all to the claims. It appears the answer is no.
Posted on 2/16/13 at 8:59 am to Doc Fenton
quote:
FWIW, Buffett's Berkshire & 3G just did a deal this week to buy Heinz for $28 billion, so it's not like he's really getting out of consumer stocks.
Ketchup soup is going to be the primary food source for the next 50 years. He's going to make a killing.
Posted on 2/16/13 at 10:46 am to Powerman
quote:
Before you dismiss the possibility of a 90% drop in the stock market as unrealistic, consider Wiedemer’s credentials.
In 2006, Wiedemer and a team of economists accurately predicted the collapse of the U.S. housing market, equity markets, and consumer spending that almost sank the United States. They published their research in the book America’s Bubble Economy.
Wiedemer is a doom and gloom marketing whore. He loves to point out that he predicted the housing collapse, when the truth is that anyone whom has ever studied "Bubbles" could have easily done the same thing. It's the same old, "Armageddon is upon us, be prepared, buy this book" bullshite that's been sold by countless other economists/conspiracy theorists/snake oil salesman/talk show hosts for hundreds of years.
They can't all be right, but they can all sell, apparently.
Posted on 2/16/13 at 12:11 pm to Vols&Shaft83
quote:
Bitcoins mother fricker
glad you're coming around!
btw, exchanging at $27.07 right now!
Posted on 2/16/13 at 1:41 pm to lsuhsc05
quote:
FWIW, Buffett's Berkshire & 3G just did a deal this week to buy Heinz for $28 billion, so it's not like he's really getting out of consumer stocks.
Ketchup soup is going to be the primary food source for the next 50 years. He's going to make a killing.
quote:
lsuhsc05
7 posts
From here on out, I take everything you say to the bank!
Posted on 2/16/13 at 2:13 pm to Powerman
quote:
In 2006, Wiedemer and a team of economists accurately predicted the collapse of the U.S. housing market, equity markets, and consumer spending that almost sank the United States.
My friend who never went to college, knows nothing about economics or business, and very little about real estate predicted the housing collapse in 2006.
Berkshire is making tons of money from Burlington Northern. The Keystone won't get built not because of environmentalist objections but because Buffet is hauling the oil and other fracking products.
Walmart stunned Friday with the e mail leak.
All you need to know is that as long as the Fed is pumping, the markets not going to drop substantially. Watch the SOMA.
Greenspan interview with Maria Bartiromo said Only the stock market matters. It is what it is.
Posted on 2/16/13 at 2:39 pm to Doc Fenton
How does a layman investor bet against financial gain? What could I invest in to gain money on if I expect the market as a whole to sour?
Posted on 2/16/13 at 3:38 pm to kingbob
quote:
How does a layman investor bet against financial gain? What could I invest in to gain money on if I expect the market as a whole to sour?
Options, Bear Stocks/Funds/ETFs, Gold, and of course, bitcoins mother fricker.
Posted on 2/16/13 at 3:48 pm to kingbob
quote:
How does a layman investor bet against financial gain? What could I invest in to gain money on if I expect the market as a whole to sour?
By an aggressive inverse ETF
Posted on 2/16/13 at 3:52 pm to Powerman
Pro Shares has some interesting ETFs that are essentially shorts
SDOW is a really aggressive one.
You might wipe out all your money if you're wrong though
SDOW is a really aggressive one.
You might wipe out all your money if you're wrong though
Posted on 2/16/13 at 3:57 pm to Powerman
quote:
You might wipe out all your money if you're wrong though
"Layman" investor who thinks he can outsmart the market, will probably buy a product he doesn't understand, lose his arse, and the Occupy Movement has another member
Posted on 2/16/13 at 10:57 pm to Vols&Shaft83
hence why I am not an investor. I have been thinking about hypothetical investments for when I start my career in the next year. I want to put my Jewishness to good use, but I don't know enough about securities. The fed's interest rates are too low for savings accounts to be worth anything, the stock market seems very risky right now unless you have insider knowledge, and I'm very hesitant to invest in currencies or government bonds due to the high levels of public debt across the board.
I find bitcoin alluring albeit highly speculative.
Heck, at this rate, I feel as though I'd get a better rate of return on investments by betting straight win/loss on college football.
I find bitcoin alluring albeit highly speculative.
Heck, at this rate, I feel as though I'd get a better rate of return on investments by betting straight win/loss on college football.
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