Who wants to put the combined MT heads together and make some $? - Page 2 - TigerDroppings.com

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jso0003
Auburn Fan
Birmingham/Atlanta
Member since Jun 2009
4775 posts

re: Who wants to put the combined MT heads together and make some $?


quote:

You have to do your own due diligence on the stocks you recommend: financials, key information, industry strength, etc..


Agreed, but I think it needs a longer timeline than a week or two.






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LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
Tier BP
Member since Aug 2003
27551 posts

re: Who wants to put the combined MT heads together and make some $?


quote:

Agreed, but I think it needs a longer timeline than a week or two.


We could do monthly or quarterly expectations.

I'm open for any recommendations on fine tuning it.






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LSUtoOmaha
LSU Fan
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
21053 posts

re: Who wants to put the combined MT heads together and make some $?


Here is my suggestion:

Everybody has to own exactly three equities or some other clearly defined, accessible, and open financial instrument by the end of the day (3pm Central) on January 13. Commodities, bonds, ETFs, etc are allowed. Commodities can be purchased at spot price or via ETF.

Everyone starts off with $100,000 dollars. At least 20% of your updated money total must be in each holding.

You can trade as much as you would like, and there are no commission fees. However, when you sell one of your holdings, you have to pick up a third by the close of the 3rd business day after that sale.

This gap in time is the only time in which you are allowed to hold "cash."

Each holding must be held for at least one hour.
After a sale, you cannot re-purchase that same holding for at least one hour.

Every transaction has to be clearly posted, and no edits are allowed, except to your original post, where you will keep track of every transaction you make. You must state the exact time of each transaction.

No shorting is allowed, except in ETFs that mirror shorting. No margin trading or option trading either.

We can have updates at the end of each month, with monthly winners, and then of course a yearly winner, ending the last business day of 2013.

I like the idea of everyone having to have exactly three holdings because it keeps things more simple and less erratic. Also, each transaction would have to be posted in its separate post (no edits allowed unless it's just a typographical error).

Of course, we would need to be on some sort of honor system here, because it's too hard for one person to track everything. However, person keeps all of their transactions in their first post, then I could track everyone's progress at the end of the month and update the thread.

Let me know what y'all think.



This post was edited on 1/2 at 11:09 pm


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braindeadboxer
LSU Fan
Utopia
Member since Nov 2011
5015 posts

re: Who wants to put the combined MT heads together and make some $?


I'll follow this thread but may not be an active poster in it for now. The one to eye right now imo is BP. It's getting ready to move. Also LPX is at a peak right now. I've rode it twice and done 15%+ both times. I'll sell out before the end of the week. Look for it to contract in the near future and then spurt up again in a year or so.





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matthew25
Ole Miss Fan
Member since Jun 2012
3359 posts

re: Who wants to put the combined MT heads together and make some $?


Doc Fenton: who did they recommend in the sequel?





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Doc Fenton
Yale Fan
Member since Feb 2007
50726 posts

re: Who wants to put the combined MT heads together and make some $?


The sequel was pure crap. All this bull shite about green energy being good and noble and bankers' greed being the cause of economic collapse.





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Catman88
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Dec 2004
39350 posts

re: Who wants to put the combined MT heads together and make some $?


Sounds like what I did in HS when we started a stock club. We created a 5k portfolio and tracked it all semester. Teacher gave the person who made the most a prize.





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LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
Tier BP
Member since Aug 2003
27551 posts

re: Who wants to put the combined MT heads together and make some $?


quote:

Teacher gave the person who made the most a prize.


Sex?

Yes. It would like a stock club.

I'm usually in the energy/tech sectors. I'll pull out my spreadsheets and narrow some choices for the group to review.






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Doc Fenton
Yale Fan
Member since Feb 2007
50726 posts

re: Who wants to put the combined MT heads together and make some $?


Okay, let me be serious now.

I've never really been a fan of stock clubs or competitions, because they seem to go completely against the grain of what value investing (in the tradition of Benjamin Graham & Warren Buffett) should be all about. First, because the time periods when a good stock investment will pay off are inherently unpredictable. Second, because there is no way to evaluate similarity of risk profiles for different portfolios that are competing against other in an artificial competition. I know very little about practical investing, but from what I gather, trying to be overly competitive about your returns versus the other guy is exactly what gets you in the most trouble.

Now, those are the drawbacks, but I do see some good that can be done with an "investment choice tracking thread" or something similar. In past years I tracked SEC football picks against the spread on the SEC Rant, just to keep an objective account at who was good at picking games, and who wasn't. It's good to be objective about things, and to do this, it's good to amass a nice data set from lots of people.

The problem here is how to categorize and formalize investment ideas in a way that's flexible enough to take account of varying risk and time profiles. That's not an easy task, and really, I'm not sure I know how I'd go about trying to design it. Still, I think something useful could be done.

quote:

Yeah. You could have 40 people tossing out 20 or so stocks.

We could limit it to 2-3 recommendations per poster so the others could evaluate them independently and give them a rating of 1 thru 5; with 5 being strong support and 1 being weak.

You can't rate your own submissions.


This actually sounds like you're on the right track. I think you should just be flexible about how people choose their own objective measuring criterion. Poster A might give an idea, and say, "I would hold Stock X until June 15." Poster B might give another idea, and say, "I would hold Stock Y until either Stock Z goes below $20/share, the yen appreciates by 10%, or UST 10yr yields rise above 2.5%." Either one should be a valid investment idea.

Ultimately, though, how well the idea pans out will be a subjective judgment. That's why I like your 1-5 rating scale. After a year, the poster who has the best rating average with a minimum of N number of picks could be declared a winner.

For my part, I don't think I'm yet competent to be either making or judging the investment ideas.

Finally, be sure to run things by the admins and be careful about the "this is just a game and should not be construed as actual investment advice," yada, yada, yada.







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matthew25
Ole Miss Fan
Member since Jun 2012
3359 posts

re: Who wants to put the combined MT heads together and make some $?


I like the idea of each poster with 3-4 stocks and the game ending, . . . wait for it . . . April 1.

Winner gets a free subscription to Chicken's double secret subscription site.

pin above as "The Chicken Fool"






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LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
Tier BP
Member since Aug 2003
27551 posts

re: Who wants to put the combined MT heads together and make some $?


I'm going to look at the shipping industry hard.

I accidentially came across a dry-bulk shipping company in Greece (there seems to be a shitload in Greece) and a good bit of the industry crashed during the Greek financial crisis.

I'll start evaluating shipping cos and toss out the best two I feel can rebound the fastest from there current low current values.



This post was edited on 1/4 at 8:33 pm


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Athanatos
Vanderbilt Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
6405 posts

re: Who wants to put the combined MT heads together and make some $?


Shipping has been dead for years w/ no near term catalysts.





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LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
Tier BP
Member since Aug 2003
27551 posts

re: Who wants to put the combined MT heads together and make some $?


The industry, minus the Greek Shipping companies, have been pretty flat since the early part of 2008. I'll probably limit myself I the Greek shipping companies who were hard hit in the start of the Greek financial crisis early last year.

A few of them just had the bad luck of being a Greek company and look to be undervalued right now after a cursory review.



This post was edited on 1/5 at 10:06 am


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BigBoyTiger
LSU Fan
Chicago
Member since Aug 2005
8751 posts

re: Who wants to put the combined MT heads together and make some $?


I just purchased a Mortgage REIT (IVR) a week ago and it's popped nicely. I think with the Fed still providing support and interest rates largely staying flat, this will be a nice investment for me.





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LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
Tier BP
Member since Aug 2003
27551 posts

re: Who wants to put the combined MT heads together and make some $?


I'll toss out these guys for shipping:

Safe Bulkers (SB)
Closed at 3.99 today
P/E 3.38
EPS 1.18
Profit Margin levels have been > 50% the last 3 years.
Insider/5% Top Holders: 60%
Paid Dividend the last 4 Quarters
Trading nearly 50% below it's 52W high
Beat Expectations the last two earnings

Next earnings report is Feb 13th.

Goal: 5-10% movement upward heading into Feb. Hold until Feb 1st or sell with a significant upwards movement of >15%.

Play money: 1250 shares @ $3.99 (~$5k)



This post was edited on 1/7 at 6:18 pm


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Vols&Shaft83
Tennessee Fan
Member since Dec 2012
11984 posts

re: Who wants to put the combined MT heads together and make some $?


quote:

I've got three ideas.

#1. Whitewood-Young Industries...low P.E. Explosive earnings. 30% discount from book. Great cash flow. Coupla 5% holders. Strong management.

#2. Terafly...Analysts don't like it. I do. The breakup value is twice the market price. The deal finances itself. Sell off two divisions.

#3. Bluestar Airlines. A comer. 80 medium-body jets. 300 pilots, flies northeast, Canada, some Florida and Caribbean routes...great slots in major cities...There was a crash last year. They just got a favorable ruling on a lawsuit. Even the plaintiffs don't know...the decision'll clear the way for new planes and route contracts. There's only a small float out there, so you should grab it. Good for a five point pop.




Lunch is for wimps.






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LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
Tier BP
Member since Aug 2003
27551 posts

re: Who wants to put the combined MT heads together and make some $?


Not bad so far on Safe Bulkers.

~3% up since positing Monday evening, and has eclipsed over 5% in trading earlier today.






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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
21110 posts

re: Who wants to put the combined MT heads together and make some $?


I'm betting on AMZN having a killer earnings report.





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gatorsimz
Florida Fan
cafe risque
Member since Feb 2009
5352 posts

re: Who wants to put the combined MT heads together and make some $?


I'll say SPDR Gold Shares Trust (GLD) gets a 5-7% bump late February. At $160.20/share now. 5-7% will put it around 168.20 to 171.4.

I'll throw in DBP also. At 56.48 now. Target 61-63.5 by March 1.



I'm betting on the incompetency of DC with these 2.



This post was edited on 1/9 at 10:02 am


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gatorsimz
Florida Fan
cafe risque
Member since Feb 2009
5352 posts

re: Who wants to put the combined MT heads together and make some $?


I called TEU on 12/20 in this thread LINK

quote:

If you want something to throw money at you should check out TEU. It's a younger company, pays a 21% dividend and sitting around its 52 week low. It's a good value at least.


up 27% since.






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