quote:
Net Wealth in the U.S.
(Year, Net Wealth at end of year, Nominal GDP, Wealth-to-GDP Ratio)
(GDP & wealth figures given in trillions of USD)
1994, 25.54, 7.09, 3.60
1995, 28.21, 7.41, 3.80
1996, 30.10, 7.84, 3.84
1997, 33.96, 8.33, 4.08
1998, 37.91, 8.79, 4.31
1999, 43.02, 9.35, 4.60
2000, 43.28, 9.95, 4.35
2001, 43.13, 10.29, 4.19
2002, 42.10, 10.64, 3.96
2003, 48.02, 11.14, 4.31
2004, 54.96, 11.85, 4.64
2005, 61.22, 12.62, 4.85
2006, 65.65, 13.38, 4.91
2007, 66.17, 14.03, 4.72
2008, 53.55, 14.29, 3.75
2009, 55.59, 13.94, 3.99
2010, 59.16, 14.53, 4.07
2011, 60.04, 15.09, 3.98

The latest report for the 3Q of 2012 reveals (on table B.100 LINK) that private net worth is at about $64.77 trillion.

Could we fall back from $66.2 trillion to $53.6 trillion like what happened from 2007 to 2008? I don't think so. Housing is just much more stable, and so are corporate balance sheets.

Employment ratios? They're already extraordinarily low. Outstanding loans? Go to the Fed's data releases and look at seasonally-adjusted historical consumer debt levels. From the July 2008 peak to October 2012, it's only gone from $2.58 trillion to $2.78 trillion. Given how much it usually increases in 4 years time in nominal terms, that's anemic.

P.S. -- And I think I got into a big argument with another poster a couple of years back on just how much new regulation was harming credit card debt. Well 4 years later, revolving debt is still about 15% below what it used to be in nominal terms.

P.P.S. -- I think Shiller's cyclically-adjusted 10-year price earnings ratio (CAPE) stood at 21.45 for October 2012, down from the 27.31 level he records for October 2007, but up from the 13.32 level he records for March 2009.

This post was edited on 12/27/12 at 7:12 am

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Posted by BennyAndTheInkJets

Middle of a layover

Member since Nov 2010

5606 posts

Posted on 12/27/12 at 10:06 am to Doc Fenton

Be back in a few hours to edit this, work just got nuts.

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Posted by tirebiter

7K R&G chile land aka SF

Member since Oct 2006

9282 posts

Posted on 12/27/12 at 4:36 pm to Doc Fenton

CAPE is 21.68 today, but you are wasting your time discussing equity valuations with a fixed income guy working for a huge firm. You got your panties in a wad when I kept pointing to CC charge offs being the driver in the reduction in outstanding revolving credit balances, not repayment from consumer card holders. Savings rates have declined again this year, people still can't control their buying impulses and continue to overspend. ZIRP sucks for retirees, especially those that can't afford taking on excess risk trying to generate 4-5% returns when they are lucky to find anything. What are they going to do, run down to the bank and replace their maturing 5-yr CD with one paying 1% or they could go buy a bond fund holding shite tons of bonds priced at a premium to face value and risk losing their asses. How much is ZIRP affecting their consumption capacity compared to where it might be if rates were within something resembling a historical range. I got an earful of that shite from multiple relatives over the holiday. Who is ZIRP really helping these days? It's a rhetorical question. Peace, brah, I am more with you than against you.

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