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Can anyone defend ZIRP going into 2013?

Posted on 12/21/12 at 4:43 am
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 12/21/12 at 4:43 am
This is getting freaking ridiculous.

I have long defended the FOMC's actions in 2001, while saying that its members made a mistake by keeping rates so low in 2003 & 2004. (See " History of Federal Open Market Committee actions." See also, Historical CPI.)

As some may recall, I approved of the version of TARP that was passed in the fall of 2008, and also approved of Bernanke's monetary policy in 2008 & 2009. In 2010, I began to grow wary of it. Going into the winter of 2010-2011, I said that he had made a big mistake by going forward with QE2. I later backtracked on that assertion in late February 2011 ( LINK) when I saw how QE2 caused a big spike in volume to home real estate sales, helping to work off a lot of toxic inventory.

Okay, but I disapproved of ZIRP continuing through 2011, and I definitely was against it in 2012. Now look at the latest NAR figures that came out on residential real estate for November 2012, and compare those with the annual figures for 2008 through 2011:

Existing Home Sales from NAR
(S.A. annualized volume in millions, median sales price in thousands of dollars, housing inventory in months)
2008, 4.11, 198.1, 10.4
2009, 4.34, 172.5, 8.8
2010, 4.19, 172.9, 9.4
2011, 4.26, 166.1, 8.2
2012-Nov, 5.04, 180.6, 4.8

So now home prices have not only stabilized, but are rising again, and inventory has actually dropped below a 5 months supply.

Why is Bernanke still executing ZIRP, despite all its known corrosive effects on the wider economy?
Posted by BennyAndTheInkJets
Middle of a layover
Member since Nov 2010
5606 posts
Posted on 12/21/12 at 8:18 am to
quote:

Why is Bernanke still executing ZIRP, despite all its known corrosive effects on the wider economy?

I'm very curious what you believe these known corrosive effects are. You picked out one indicator for your point, why not look at the outflows from equity mutual funds? Why not look at shaky new orders and backlog? What about the coming austerity that will hit aggregate demad? Housing is starting to finally rebound but you are ignoring the fact that other parts of the economy are still fragile.

After the QE4 announcement, nobody was surprised with the outright treasury purchase program, but most were surprised with the inflation and employment thresholds (which the Fed will take a great degree of lattitude with as Bernanke indicated in his press conferences). It was the Fed's way of adding volatility back into the market, and it worked if you look at normalized swaption volatility across tenors. This is a very new Fed with a new way of conducting policy, they can control risk in the market by controlling volatility. When you have temporal language (rates low till mid 2015), it sucks out volatility but having less "set in stone" thresholds add volatility, and from volatility comes risk then return. The 5-year yield is already up 16 basis points this month, this steep curve can allow investors some pretty good roll-down into the area the Fed is controlling.

It's all about controlling the amount of risk in the market, and the Fed is now comfortable enough that they'll start injecting risk little by little. I wouldn't pay attention just the basic ZIRP, I'd pay attention to how the Fed communicates ZIRP as what their current policy and focus is.
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